We are receiving many positive signs.

Export growth across both markets and product categories.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, by the end of August 2024, the total value of goods exported nationwide reached US$265.44 billion, an increase of 15.9% compared to the same period last year. Notably, 10 product groups saw increases of over US$1 billion compared to the same period last year, bringing the total export value to an additional US$29.72 billion year-on-year, accounting for 81.5% of the country's total export value increase.

Goods exports showed consistent growth across all three key product groups (Photo: Duc Duy)

Regarding export markets, as of the end of August, the top 10 largest markets all experienced strong growth. Six of these markets saw increases of $1 billion or more: the United States reached $78.2 billion, up $16.08 billion; the EU reached $34.08 billion, up $5.08 billion; China reached $38.1 billion, up $1.7 billion; ASEAN reached $24.45 billion, up $2.84 billion; South Korea reached $16.83 billion, up $1.3 billion; and Hong Kong (China) reached $8.1 billion, up $2.27 billion.

Textiles and garments are among the export items with turnover exceeding 10 billion USD. Mr. Le Tien Truong - Chairman of the Board of Directors of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group - said that after 8 months of 2024, the export turnover of the textile and garment industry reached 28.6 billion USD, a growth of nearly 7.2% compared to the same period.

Notably, export turnover in August reached US$4.66 billion, a 14.6% increase compared to the same period last year. This is also the highest monthly export turnover ever recorded. With signed orders for the third quarter and orders under discussion for the fourth quarter, there is much hope for reaching the US$44 billion export turnover target this year, achieving the high goal set at the beginning of the year for the entire industry.

According to Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Leather and Footwear Association, leather and footwear exports grew by more than 10% in the first eight months of 2024, with many markets recovering. With the current recovery rate, leather and footwear exports are expected to reach approximately US$27 billion this year.

On behalf of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, stated that import-export activities achieved good growth due to the more positive developments in both the international and domestic contexts. Specifically, the global economic situation improved after the US Federal Reserve (FED) announced a roadmap for interest rate cuts after a long period.

In addition, the issue of high inventory levels in markets is gradually being resolved, especially in key export markets that faced difficulties in 2023 such as the EU and the US. For the US, recovering consumer indicators have become an important supporting factor for economic growth.

Furthermore, Vietnam has recently upgraded its relationship with the United States to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, promising sustainable development for trade relations between the two countries. Domestically, the government has taken strong action with numerous comprehensive support measures for the economy.

Regarding the US market, the Federal Reserve (FED) recently decided to cut interest rates and announced it will continue to lower them until 2026. Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, believes that the reversal of the FED's monetary policy presents a good opportunity for Vietnam's exports and investments. "When the FED lowers interest rates, it will boost investment and consumption, increasing demand for Vietnamese goods and services, thereby opening up more export opportunities," Dr. Can Van Luc stated.

Analyzing this further, Dr. Can Van Luc stated that the Fed's interest rate cut will contribute to a downward trend in global interest rates, as many central banks around the world have followed suit, continuing to lower interest rates. This will stimulate consumer demand, investment, and production by businesses and individuals. This will help boost demand for Vietnamese exports, given the high degree of openness of the Vietnamese economy and the fact that the US and Europe are leading export markets for Vietnam.

There are still many difficulties.

However, according to Dr. Can Van Luc, exchange rates significantly affect import and export activities. Currently, the exchange rate has decreased, not increasing sharply as before, which usually means the domestic currency strengthens and the value of foreign currencies decreases. But this is not always favorable for Vietnam's exports.

Because the high value of foreign currencies abroad will affect the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods. Furthermore, Vietnam's exports depend heavily on FDI enterprises, so the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade needs to be carefully considered.

In the footwear industry, a recovery trend is gradually emerging. However, according to Ms. Phan Thi Thanh Xuan, the supply of raw materials and components is still not strong, leading to increased production costs. Input costs and labor costs have both risen, with labor costs accounting for approximately 25% of the product price. If costs continue to increase, businesses will find it difficult to make a profit.

To remain competitive, businesses must innovate technologically. However, not all businesses have the resources to invest in new technologies, so they have to restructure and optimize costs to continue receiving orders.

According to economist Dinh Trong Thinh, export activities are a major driving force for economic growth. With import and export growth estimated at over $413 billion in the past eight months, the 6% growth target for the whole year is almost certainly achievable.

To boost production and business activities as well as promote exports to achieve the targets set at the beginning of the year, Mr. Dinh Trong Thinh suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Trade should focus on implementing and effectively utilizing opportunities from free trade agreements (FTAs); prioritize updating and grasping information on foreign markets; conditions, requirements, and changes in export markets for imported goods... From there, in coordination with industry associations and export-oriented manufacturing enterprises, they should secure orders not only in the first quarter of 2025 but for the entire year.

From the perspective of domestic manufacturing and exporting businesses, they must stand on their own two feet. They must produce high-quality products under Vietnamese brands to conquer international markets, while still maintaining a strong presence in the domestic market and boosting domestic consumption.

From the perspective of the management agency, Mr. Tran Thanh Hai stated that, as the leading agency in managing and operating import and export activities, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has promptly identified difficulties and risks from export markets to advise and propose solutions for developing export markets. Vietnam's policy of international economic integration and diversification of export and import markets through negotiations and signing of new-generation free trade agreements has opened up new market areas and reduced the risks of heavy dependence on a few markets.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-hang-hoa-don-nhieu-dau-hieu-kha-quan-348164.html