El Nino 2026 could be the strongest in history.

Climate models are indicating an El Niño event that could be stronger than any in modern history, raising concerns about a global food security crisis.

The world is entering a new El Niño phase. This time, scientists fear it could be the strongest phenomenon ever recorded in modern history.

The latest forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate that Pacific Ocean surface temperatures could rise by at least 2.5 degrees Celsius above the annual average. Some models predict increases exceeding 4 degrees Celsius, a threshold never before reached in modern observational history. For comparison, the three largest El Niño events in the past 50 years, which began in 1982, 1997, and 2015, only saw increases of around 2 degrees Celsius.

"Some current models suggest a very high probability of an extremely extreme El Niño event occurring. However, it's still too early to know for sure," said Zeke Hausfather, a scientist at Berkeley Earth.

Lessons from 1877

History provides the clearest lesson about the dangers of extreme El Niño.

In 1877, El Niño caused a severe drought across the tropics, from India and Brazil to southern Africa and China. Pacific Ocean surface temperatures rose by approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius above average. The resulting famine claimed the lives of over 50 million people, equivalent to about 3.5% of the world's population at the time.

El Niño caused a famine in 1877. Photo: Bloomberg .

In southern India, records describe emaciated people struggling to survive on roots. However, historians point out that the tragedy was not solely due to harsh natural conditions. Historian Mike Davis, in his book "The Late Victorian Genocide" (2001), describes how the British colonial government maintained massive grain exports from India even as people were starving.

"Londonists are essentially eating Indian bread," Davis wrote.

Meteorologists today are comparing the developing El Nino to the 1877 event, a comparison that hasn't been made in the last 50 years.

Compared to the 19th century, humanity is much better prepared. Countries monitor El Niño using networks of ocean temperature buoys and early warning systems. Many countries vulnerable to extreme weather events hold strategic grain reserves.

Prepare thoroughly.

Professor Vimal Mishra at the Gandhinagar Institute of Technology said that India does not face risks on the same scale as it did more than a century ago.

"If there were a year with little rain, we wouldn't have witnessed famine," he said.

However, Mr. Mishra warned that this would have a direct impact on the rate of economic growth as people would have to use their savings, spend less, and close businesses.

Modern agriculture has successfully bred many drought-resistant crops. Photo: Bloomberg .

The world in 2026 has weaknesses that the 19th century did not have. Fertilizer shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are causing hardship for farmers worldwide. Soaring energy prices due to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran are draining the budgets of many countries. International aid networks for poor countries have shrunk significantly.

Laurie Laybourn, head of the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative in the UK, warned of the possibility of "a perfect storm combining the elements".

"You can see an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, debt, and all the domino effects that stem from that," Laybourn said.

The risk is evident.

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) warns that El Niño could have uneven impacts. It causes droughts that reduce food production in Asia and Australia, while increased rainfall boosts soybean production in the Americas.

"The impending El Niño phenomenon is likely to coincide with trade restrictions caused by conflict in the Middle East, which have disrupted sea freight, driving up trans-Pacific container rates by 40% compared to pre-crisis levels," the UNDRR report stated.

El Niño causes many extreme weather patterns. Photo: Bloomberg .

El Niño typically peaks at the end of the calendar year and causes higher global temperatures on land in the following months. Many scientists predict that 2027 will break all previously recorded global temperature records.

Meteorologist Ben Noll stated in the Washington Post that a catastrophe on the scale of 1877 is unlikely to be repeated due to changed social and economic conditions. However, he also warned that "a serious event could still significantly impact the global food system."

The true intensity of this year's El Niño remains uncertain. As climate models increasingly point to a historic event, the world will need more than mere monitoring and warning.

Source: https://znews.vn/el-nino-2026-co-the-manh-nhat-lich-su-post1654681.html