Cocoa prices fell for the sixth consecutive session.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported mixed developments in the world raw material market in yesterday's trading session. At the close, selling pressure dominated, causing the MXV-Index to fall another 0.6% - extending the decline to the third consecutive session, down to 2,164 points...

MXV-Index

Cocoa prices fell for the sixth consecutive session.

Red dominated the industrial raw material price list yesterday. Cocoa prices attracted attention after extending their decline to the sixth session, plunging nearly 5.5% to $9,110/ton - the lowest level in more than two weeks.

Industrial raw material price list

Concerns that low rainfall would further impact Ivory Coast’s mid-season production were eased when the USDA released its forecast for cocoa production in Ivory Coast, according to MXV. According to the USDA report, Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is expected to maintain stable production in the 2024-2025 crop year, up 2.2% to 1.8 million tonnes from the previous crop year. The report also estimated that Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports this season will reach 1.1 million tonnes, up 12.9% from the previous year.

Concerns about a slow start to the mid-season crop, which typically runs from April to September, and lower-than-average rainfall had pushed cocoa prices higher. However, the weather has now improved, with generally favorable weather conditions in West Africa and sufficient rainfall to support crop growth. Total cocoa arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire since the start of the season have reached 1.56 million tonnes, up 9.1% from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, cocoa grinding demand in Côte d’Ivoire declined, with a total of 38,169 tonnes ground in April, down 7% year-on-year. Year-to-date, cocoa grinding reached 389,656 tonnes, down slightly by 0.2% year-on-year, reflecting weak demand due to high prices.

In addition, according to Eurostat, European cocoa bean imports in the first quarter also decreased by 10.6% to 436,500 tons, while cocoa grinding output in the region decreased by 3.7% to 353,500 tons, showing that consumption in Europe continued to weaken.

In addition, cocoa inventories on the ICE exchange in the US have recovered sharply since the 21-year low recorded on January 24, to the highest level in more than 8 months, reaching 2.19 million bags yesterday, creating further downward pressure on the cocoa market.

Soybean prices recover slightly

The MXV-Index of agricultural products recovered slightly yesterday after four consecutive sessions of weakness. Of which, soybean prices increased slightly by 0.31% yesterday, as the market recovered from the previous sharp decline. The market fluctuated due to the impact of conflicting fundamental information, making the price trend unclear.

Agricultural product price list

In South America, LSEG Market Research has just lowered its forecast for Argentina's 2024-2025 soybean production to 48.7 million tonnes, down slightly from its previous forecast. Meanwhile, Dr. Cordonnier, an expert in South American agricultural products, also revised down his forecast to 48.5 million tonnes due to damage from flooding. Previously, many soybean growing areas in Argentina had just experienced heavy rains and floods, causing difficulties in harvesting and the risk of reduced productivity. Although the weather situation is gradually improving, the continuous reduction of production forecasts by organizations shows that the crop has generally suffered some damage in the recent period. This is a factor that helped buyers dominate the market in the last session.

On the other hand, the weather forecast for the US Midwest continues to weigh on the market. Rain is expected to be concentrated in the northwest and southeast soybean growing regions over the next five days, while much of the Midwest remains dry. The 6-10 day forecast calls for warmer temperatures in the east and continued rainfall across the Midwest, which could improve soil moisture, support crops and maintain expectations for a bumper crop this year, putting downward pressure on prices.

In addition, soybean products also recorded mixed developments. Soybean oil prices fell more than 1% to $1,066/ton due to pressure from the weakening energy market. In contrast, soybean meal prices increased nearly 1% to $326/ton, due to concerns that supplies from Argentina - the world's largest soybean meal exporter - remain at risk due to adverse weather conditions.

Prices of some other goods