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Gold price waiting for signal to break out: 'Catch the bottom' or should we still be cautious?

After a week of strong fluctuations, world gold prices are forecast positively by analysts as many important economic data are about to be announced.

VietNamNetVietNamNet14/07/2025

Spot gold opened the week at $3,338.55 an ounce. After briefly dipping below $3,300, the precious metal rebounded as traders in the U.S. market returned from a long holiday.

Gold prices quickly hit $3,336 at the end of the North American trading session and continued to rise to $3,345 an ounce by the end of the afternoon session. However, selling pressure from the Asian and European markets caused the gold price to adjust down to $3,320 an ounce.

In Tuesday's trading session, the world gold price continued to fall below the $3,300 mark. This is considered a resistance level that caused the market to move sideways throughout the session.

As expected, North American traders continued to be the main drivers of the market. Spot gold prices broke above $3,300 early on Wednesday. Buying pressure from Asian and European markets then pushed prices to a peak of nearly $3,330 an ounce.

The rally continued on Thursday as gold prices crossed the $3,336 mark and hit a weekly high of $3,345 an ounce.

Gold - Chi Hieu (12).jpg

Experts forecast positive gold price prospects. Photo: Chi Hieu

In the North American market, gold prices hit a weekly high of $3,368.86 per ounce. After testing the short-term support level of $3,350, prices traded in a narrow range of about $5 around $3,355 at the end of the week.

In the domestic gold market, on July 12, SJC gold bar prices were traded at 119.5-121.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell), an increase of 500,000 VND/tael compared to the previous session.

The price of 1-5 chi SJC gold rings is listed at 115-117.5 million VND/tael (buy - sell), unchanged from the previous session. The price of 9999 gold rings at Doji is at 116-119 million VND/tael, up 500,000 VND/tael from the previous session.

At the current price, the world gold price converted to VND (including tax and processing fee) differs from the domestic SJC gold price by about 14 million VND/tael.

What will the price of gold be next week?

Forecasting the price of gold in the coming time, experts give positive comments on the short-term outlook for gold prices, in the context of continued global economic instability. Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic and geopolitical developments to make decisions in accordance with their risk appetite.

Markets are divided after the “Big Beautiful Bill” was passed, said Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.

Optimistic investors are buying stocks in hopes that deficits will boost growth, while pessimists are turning to safe havens like gold, silver and Bitcoin, which Button said is the preferred choice of central banks and global reserve managers.

Trump’s economic policies and uncertainty surrounding tariffs have also prompted investors to sell dollars to hold gold. However, Button said retail sales are not the main driver of gold prices at the moment.

Daniel Pavilonis, senior broker at RJO Futures, said factors such as the US budget bill and the global debt burden are long-term drivers for gold prices. However, he warned that gold is still “stuck” in a narrow range and could correct to the 200-day moving average.

Factors such as geopolitical tensions, tariffs and Russian oil sanctions are supporting gold prices in the short term. Mr. Pavilonis also noted that China’s manufacturing costs are becoming less competitive, prompting US companies to shift production domestically, thereby maintaining demand for the metal.

Despite upcoming data on inflation (CPI) and EU tax policy, Mr. Pavilonis does not believe that this information will create strong fluctuations in the short term. The gold market may continue to consolidate for many months, before entering a new growth cycle.

Gold is in a 12-week consolidation phase, with the range becoming increasingly narrow, said Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro. Kuptsikevich said the 50-day moving average is still acting as important technical support.

However, the strengthening US dollar is putting pressure on the precious metals market. Although the minutes of the June FOMC meeting showed that some members supported easing monetary policy in July - a factor supporting gold prices, the outlook still depends heavily on developments in inflation and the US labor market.

Technically, Mr. Kuptsikevich believes that the possibility of gold breaking out of the $3,250-$3,450/ounce range in the short term is not high. If the price approaches the $3,370-$3,400 range this week, it could signal a possible breakout. Conversely, if gold continues to fluctuate around $3,300-$3,350, the risk of a downward correction will increase.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-cho-tin-hieu-de-but-pha-mua-vao-luc-nay-co-voi-vang-2421221.html


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