Gold price next week: Waiting for inflation data

January 7, 2024 07:34 Nhat Linh Print article

ANTD.VN - Gold prices next week are waiting for new economic data, especially the US CPI, to more clearly determine when the Fed will cut interest rates.

Gold prices started the new year with a not-so-bad trading week amid information that has not yet provided a clear view on the path of the Fed's monetary policy.

Domestically, SJC gold prices increased by about VND1 million per tael last week and the large difference between buying and selling prices continued to persist. Accordingly, the national gold standard brand closed the week at around VND72.00 - 75.00 million per tael.

Gold prices fluctuated last week

Meanwhile, world gold prices fluctuated. Spot gold prices closed the week above 2,046 USD/ounce, and February gold futures prices also ended the week at around 2,050 USD/ounce, down 1% from the previous week.

The tug-of-war in precious metals comes as investors try to predict the next move from the US Federal Reserve. Markets are currently pricing in a 68% chance of a first rate cut at its March monetary policy meeting.

However, some economists say that after the relatively positive December jobs data, it is unlikely that the US central bank will be ready to cut interest rates at that time.

Analysts at TD Securities said the jobs report reinforced the view that the Fed will likely continue to push back on rate cuts until the signal becomes clearer. “We do expect inflation to continue to decline in the next few reports, which would open the door for a rate cut in the second quarter.”

Experts predict that the resistance level of $2,050/ounce in gold will likely last for a few months, before the Fed officially pivots. The likely scenario is that gold will be pushed below $2,000/ounce to rebalance after the overbought period at the end of last year, before bouncing back as the time for interest rate cuts approaches.

Next week, the main highlight will come at the end of the week with the December Consumer Price Index report. If this inflation data does not come too far from expectations, gold prices are expected to be volatile.

Source link