Iran's ballistic missile inventory and production capacity

According to Israeli military data and expert analysis, Iran has launched about 700 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) at Israel in the past 14 months, leaving Iran with between 300 and 1,300 of these weapons in its arsenal.

In addition to the number that has been launched, Iran’s missile arsenal is also believed to have been “depleted” somewhat by the intense airstrikes that have lasted for the past five days by Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had targeted at least a third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers – which are used to launch MRBMs.

According to some Israeli sources, the country's air force is currently facing little significant resistance from Iran, while Iran's nighttime missile attacks on Israeli cities appear to be showing signs of decreasing.

The Sevvom-e Khordad air defense missile system is introduced during the annual military parade of the Iranian armed forces in Tehran, September 22, 2022. Photo: IRNA/TTXVN

In the latest development, on the morning of June 18, the IDF announced that it had conducted a series of airstrikes targeting military targets in the Iranian capital Tehran, including a missile manufacturing facility. Many witnesses at the scene confirmed that they had observed a large fire and smoke rising from the attacked area.

How many missiles does Iran have left?

There are few reliable estimates of Iran’s missile arsenal. However, General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), said in 2023 that Iran had more than 3,000 missiles of various ranges. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), estimated that 1,000 to 2,000 of those were medium-range missiles, capable of crossing the 1,400 km (870 miles) between Iran and Israel. However, he said that number was only a “paper estimate.”

According to the IDF, Iran used 120 MRBMs in the attack on April 13 last year, another 200 on October 1 of the same year and another 380 in the last five days, which took Iran’s missile arsenal to a total of 700.

Does this put Tehran in a difficult position to maintain its missile deterrent against Israel? An accurate assessment would require taking into account the size of Iran’s initial stockpile and the extent of damage Israel has inflicted on its military infrastructure in its nationwide airstrikes since last week.

Mr. Ben Taleblu said that it is possible that Iran currently has about 1,300 MRBMs left. However, in a somewhat “pessimistic” estimate, Dr. Eyal Pinko – a senior researcher at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies and a former Israeli naval intelligence officer – had a different opinion. “Considering that they have launched about 400-500 missiles in the last four days, and that part of the missile stockpile has been destroyed, I believe that Iran currently has about 700-800 missiles left.”

Iran's missile production capacity in the current context

Rare images of the aftermath of the October 26 Israeli air strikes last year show the significant damage to Iran’s arsenal. Admiral Tony Radakin, Chief of the British General Staff, said in a speech in December 2024 that 100 Israeli aircraft launched missiles from hundreds of kilometers away and “almost completely knocked out Iran’s entire air defense system and destroyed its ballistic missile production capacity within a year.”

But Israel has recently raised its alarm about the threat posed by Iran’s missile production. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on June 13, as the air campaign began, that Iran had increased production to 300 missiles a month – equivalent to 20,000 missiles in six years.

The 2024 attacks “destroyed key facilities for the production of ballistic missile engines,” Pinko said, causing serious disruptions in Iran’s supply chain. However, he noted that it is possible that an outside country will move to assist Iran in the coming months to help Tehran restore its production capacity.

Iran will not let its medium-range missile arsenal fall below 1,000, Ben Taleblu said. “For the Islamic Republic of Iran, quantity brings a kind of quality,” he said, adding that Iran excels “in crisis management.”

Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/kho-ten-lua-dan-dao-va-nang-luc-san-xuat-cua-iran-post1548773.html