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Foreign money flow reversal
At the end of May 2025, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) recorded foreign investors' buying value at VND53,826 billion, higher than the selling value (VND53,350 billion). With this result, foreign investors returned to net buying VND896 billion on HoSE, after a long period of net selling.
On the HNX and UPCoM markets, foreign investors are still net sellers, but thanks to good net buying value on HoSE, the net buying value on all three markets is still maintained at a positive number, with a value of over 470 billion VND.
In absolute terms, this is not a large number. However, looking at the recent developments of foreign investors, the reversal of cash flow partly shows hope that foreign investors' confidence is returning, especially after 15 consecutive months of net selling.
The positive cash flow of foreign investors spread sentiment to the general market. The VN-Index in May recorded an impressive increase, closing the last session of the month (May 30, 2025) at 1,332.60 points, up nearly 8% in the month and ending at the highest price range since the beginning of the year.
MBB became the most favorite stock of foreign investors in May 2025, when it was continuously net bought. The net purchase value of this code in the month exceeded 1,500 billion VND. Next was MWG stock, when it was net bought nearly 966 billion VND.
In terms of industry groups, the retail industry saw increased disbursement from foreign investors with a net purchase value of over VND 1,775 billion, followed by the banking industry (+ VND 1,271 billion) and the industrial park real estate industry (+ VND 540 billion).
Vietnam Construction Securities Company (CSI) expects that with the above moves, this is considered a signal to start a net buying cycle of foreign investors after a strong net selling cycle from 2020 to April 2025.
Statistics on cash flow into stock ETFs also showed positive signs. FiinTrade's statistics show that in the first 3 weeks of May 2025, the ETF group recorded a slight net inflow (over VND 145 billion), with the main contribution from Dragon Capital's DCVFMVN Diamond Fund (FUEVFVND) with a cash flow of over VND 403 billion. Meanwhile, the reference fund according to the MSCI Vietnam Index, Global X MSCI Vietnam ETF, recorded a net inflow of nearly VND 45 billion.
Capital withdrawal pressure has shown signs of easing in the stock group and recorded net capital inflows in the stock ETF group after 17 consecutive months of net withdrawal. This shows that the cautious sentiment of foreign investors is showing signs of easing in the context of Vietnam's macro and investment environment gradually improving.
Efforts to untie foreign cash flow bottlenecks
In addition to positive signals in the stock market, Circular 03/2025/TT-NHNN of the State Bank is considered to create a new step to remove obstacles in cash flow for foreign investors.
Circular No. 03/2025/TT-NHNN dated April 29, 2025, regulating the opening and use of Vietnamese Dong accounts to conduct foreign indirect investment activities, will take effect from June 16, 2025. Thus, the Ministry of Finance has coordinated with the State Bank to replace Circular No. 05/2014/TT-NHNN, issued on March 12, 2014, to realize the goal of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market.
At the end of May 2025, Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) recorded foreign investors' buying value reaching VND 53,826 billion, higher than the selling value. 
Of the 9 groups of solutions and roadmaps proposed by the State Securities Commission in March 2025, the management agency has fulfilled its commitments with 7/9 solutions, including foreign room, information disclosure, Non-pre Funding solution; technology infrastructure solution group (including STP and KRX), amending regulations on opening FII accounts and establishing a dialogue group).
The implementation of Circular 03/2025/TT-NHNN and the OTA (Omnibus trading account) solution will create great convenience for foreign investors to participate in the Vietnamese stock market.
Looking back at Saudi Arabia's reform roadmap, BSC experts see that Vietnam is gradually realizing solutions to get closer to its upgrade goal.
Investor sentiment in the market also agrees with the positive outlook ahead. Mr. Petri Deryng, founder and investment director of Finnish foreign investment fund PYN Elite Fund, has just given his assessment of the market's growth potential in the context of Vietnam's continued economic expansion.
Mr. Petri Deryng said that the Vietnamese stock market is attractively valued at a P/S (price to revenue) of about 1.3 times. If we consider P/E, the valuation in 2025 is at 11 times.
The expansion of business activities of listed companies is a factor causing the P/S ratio to decrease, but the strong growth of the economy and the increase in profits of listed companies, as well as favorable conditions of the financial market and the modernization of the stock market are supporting the forecast that the market's P/S ratio can increase by nearly 2 times.
Although the market may face many fluctuations due to uncertain factors in the world , the head of PYN Elite Fund still believes that FTSE will upgrade the Vietnamese stock market in the near future.
According to market research, data from the three markets of UAE, Qatar and China show that, although affected by macroeconomic developments and the specific economic foundation of each country at each point in time, the impact on foreign cash flows during the planned transition is stronger than at the time of the upgrade announcement (at both MSCI and FTSE Russell).
Foreign investors will make net purchases 2-4 months before FTSE announces its approval for the upgrade and the start of the upgrade transition. For MSCI, foreign investors act 4-5 months earlier, due to the larger size of funds referenced by the index and the greater influence of MSCI than FTSE Russell.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/ky-vong-dong-tien-khoi-ngoai-quay-tro-lai-d295831.html
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