Russia and Syria may continue partnership even if old regime collapses

As Syrian opposition groups and the Damascus government enter into negotiations over the political future, economic and military ties between Syria and Russia appear set to continue, regardless of the outcome of the discussions.

People in the capital Damascus, Syria on December 8, 2024. Photo: THX/TTXVN

The relationship between Syria and Russia has been built on a foundation of strategic cooperation for many years, especially since Russia’s military intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015. Russian military support has helped President Bashar al-Assad’s regime maintain power and control over territory. As negotiations on Syria’s political future continue, the economic and military relationship between the two countries is likely to continue to grow. Russia not only provides weapons and military support, but also participates in infrastructure reconstruction projects, natural resource exploitation, and cooperation in other areas such as energy and agriculture. While the negotiations could lead to changes in Syria’s political structure, Damascus’ dependence on Moscow in many areas will ensure that the relationship remains important. Russia can use its influence to shape political decisions and protect its interests in the region, especially in the context of other powers such as the US and Western countries also seeking to intervene in the situation in Syria.

Syria currently imports between 1.2 and 1.5 million tons of wheat from Russia each year, making it the main source of food to feed its population. The 2011 Syrian revolution was sparked by an agricultural crisis, making wheat a weak link in the food security chain. The wheat trade alone gives Russia significant leverage over Syria’s future, according to food security experts. Any leader needs to maintain good relations with Moscow to meet this basic need. The conflict in Ukraine has increased Russia’s role in supplying wheat to the Middle East and Africa, as Ukraine loses its major role in the international market. Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, arms imports from Russia have skyrocketed. After recent Israeli airstrikes destroyed much of Syria’s air defenses, the need for rearmament has become urgent. Russia supplied 78 percent of Syria’s arms imports between 2007 and 2012. Now, due to Western sanctions, Moscow is virtually the sole supplier to Damascus. "While unhappy with the Russian presence, opposition groups understand that any future government must be realistic in managing the country and meeting basic economic needs," said an analyst in Berlin.

Russia and Syria may continue their partnership. Illustration photo, source: Internet.

Maintaining influence in Syria serves many strategic interests for Moscow. The Tartus and Hmeimim military bases are key to ensuring Russia’s long-term presence in the region. While there may be pressure from the new Syrian government to increase rents, closing the bases is not yet on the table. Syria’s fragmentation also presents opportunities and challenges for Russia. Regions divided by different military groups and states have turned Syria into a geopolitical arena. Russia is using its economic and military influence to consolidate its position and is prepared to work with any successor. Experts say the top priority for any future Syrian government will be economic and social recovery and the reintegration of refugees. Therefore, a partnership with Russia will not only help Syria secure its security, but will also be a key factor in meeting its long-term reconstruction and development needs.

Russia and Syria have built a strong partnership over the years, especially in the context of the Syrian civil war. Russia has supported the regime of President Bashar al-Assad through military, political, and economic means. Even if there is a change in the Syrian regime, this relationship is likely to continue for a number of reasons: Russia sees Syria as an important point in its regional strategy, which includes maintaining influence in the Middle East and protecting its geopolitical interests. Russia has military bases in Syria, particularly in Tartus and Hmeimim, which help it maintain a military presence and influence in the region. If a new regime is not strong enough to stabilize the situation, Russia could continue to provide support to maintain security and stability in the region. Russia could seek investment opportunities and economic cooperation with a new regime, especially in areas such as energy and infrastructure construction. Russia can try to maintain good relations with any government that comes to power, based on mutual interests and cooperation. However, it should also be noted that any relationship can change depending on the political and security situation in the region as well as the reaction of the international community.

Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, economic and military ties between Syria and Russia are expected to remain close in the near future./.

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