State Bank strongly adjusts USD selling price, sending new signal to the market...

The State Bank adjusted the intervention price up in the context of the USD exchange rate on the interbank market increasing sharply after the Lunar New Year holiday.

In this morning's trading session (February 11), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) sharply adjusted the USD selling price at the Exchange, increasing by 248 VND from 25,450 VND/USD to 25,698 VND/USD. This is the first time the SBV has made this move since the end of October 2024.

The increase in the USD selling price took place in the context of the USD exchange rate on the interbank market increasing sharply after the Lunar New Year holiday, fluctuating around the previous intervention price of the State Bank of Vietnam at 25,450 VND.

Normally, when the interbank exchange rate exceeds the intervention level, banks will seek the SBV to buy USD. Previously, during the period from April to July 2024 and the second half of December 2024, the SBV sold a large amount of USD because the exchange rate continuously exceeded the intervention level.

The State Bank adjusted the intervention price up in the context of the USD exchange rate on the interbank market increasing sharply after the Lunar New Year holiday.

According to analysts, the SBV's move to increase the intervention price is aimed at reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves, after selling more than 9 billion USD in 2024, bringing foreign exchange reserves closer to the minimum level recommended by the IMF. At the same time, this also shows that the SBV is accepting larger exchange rate fluctuations.

Previously, in early 2025, the SBV applied a new approach to managing the foreign exchange market. Instead of selling USD spot at 25,450 VND/USD, the SBV offered forward contracts with cancellation options at the same exchange rate, aiming to set a ceiling for the interbank exchange rate and quell market expectations that the SBV would adjust the intervention selling price.

However, after showing signs of cooling down at the end of January 2025, the USD exchange rate has increased sharply again in recent days. Specifically, the central exchange rate has been continuously adjusted up by the State Bank in the last 6 sessions, with a total increase of 197 VND, reaching a record of 24,522 VND. This has brought the ceiling exchange rate at banks up to 25,748 VND.

At commercial banks, the State Bank of Vietnam's continuous increase in the central exchange rate has caused the USD selling rate to no longer reach the ceiling as at the end of 2024. However, in the past week, the listed exchange rate has increased by about 300 VND for selling and 450 VND for buying.

The fact that the buying price increased faster than the selling price reflects expectations that the exchange rate will continue to rise. Currently, the buying price of USD at common banks is around 25,200 - 25,250 VND/USD, while the selling price fluctuates from 25,600 - 25,630 VND/USD - the highest level in history.

On the interbank market, the USD/VND exchange rate increased by about 225 VND in the first week after the Lunar New Year holiday and continued to increase sharply in the first two sessions of this week.

Source: SBV

The domestic exchange rate’s climb coincided with a recovery in the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of major currencies, which is now at 108.3. The dollar had previously fallen for the first time in four months in January when President Trump did not immediately impose tariffs after taking office on January 20.

However, this brief stability was quickly broken when Mr. Trump signed the first round of tariffs on February 1, applying to Mexico, Canada and China, before deciding to delay the tariffs on Mexico and Canada for another month.

Economists say the policy of increasing import taxes and deporting illegal immigrants could push up inflation, forcing the US Federal Reserve (FED) to assess the impact before adjusting monetary policy.

Now, after three consecutive rate cuts through the end of 2024 and with relatively positive fourth-quarter jobs data released last Friday, the market expects the Fed to keep rates on hold through 2025.

"This week, trade tensions and US economic data may continue to strengthen the USD, thereby pushing the domestic interbank exchange rate closer to 25,400," saidACB market research department.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/ngan-hang-nha-nuoc-dieu-chinh-manh-gia-ban-usd-phat-tin-hieu-moi-cho-thi-truong-242488.html