The day that decided Türkiye's future

Historic vote

Polling stations across Türkiye appeared calm and orderly as Turks cast their ballots in the second round of presidential elections, according to Al Jazeera television network. This is the first time in history that Turkey has held a second round of presidential elections, after no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round on May 14.

In the first round, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the most votes, 49.5% of the vote, followed by opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who received 44.9%, and third place candidate Sinan Ogan, with 5.2%. This result surprised observers because all the polls before the election showed that Mr. Erdogan was behind and Mr. Kilicdaroglu could even win in the first round.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan vote in Istanbul on May 28.

With parliamentary seats decided in the May 14 election, Turkish voters will have to choose between Erdogan, 69, and Kilicdaroglu, 75, as the next president. Erdogan heads the Justice and Development Party and represents the People's Alliance, while Kilicdaroglu heads the Republican People's Party and represents the "National Alliance", which includes six opposition parties.

Before the second round, Mr. Erdogan was considered to have more advantages than his opponent. That is, Mr. Ogan announced on May 22 that he would support President Erdogan, according to AFP. In addition, the People's Alliance won an important victory over political parties and opposition alliances in the parliamentary election on May 14.

Instantaneous testing

The two rivals have opposing views on a range of policies and the outcome of the election could determine Türkiye's course for the next five years, according to RT.

Mr Erdogan, a social conservative, has been president since 2014 and was prime minister for 11 years before that. Under his leadership, Turkey has pursued closer diplomatic and trade ties with Russia and China, and positioned itself as a potential mediator in regional conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, Mr Kilicdaroglu is a moderate who is seeking to undo many of Mr Erdogan’s domestic reforms, especially post-2016 constitutional changes that strengthened the president’s powers. Mr Kilicdaroglu has vowed to immediately restart EU accession talks if elected and to revive the Turkish economy.

Türkiye's faltering economy will be the most immediate test for whoever wins the election, observers say. The value of the Turkish lira has plummeted and inflation in October 2022 was 85% higher than a year earlier. Turkey has spent tens of billions of dollars trying to prop up the lira from a politically sensitive decline ahead of the election.

Many analysts believe Türkiye must now raise interest rates or abandon efforts to support the lira, both of which would cause economic damage. "A day of reckoning for the Turkish economy and financial markets could be near," warned analysts at Capital Economics.

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