BIDV's bad debt skyrockets, what is the 'blood clot' of the whole industry?

The total value of bad debt as of the end of June 2025 at 28 banks reached VND 294,215 billion, continuing to increase compared to the beginning of the year. Which bank is the "champion" of bad debt?

The total absolute value of bad debt continues to increase, but due to the strong expansion of outstanding loans, the ratio of bad debt to total outstanding loans has recorded a downward trend - Photo: AI drawing

Data from financial reports shows that, as of June 30, 2025, total outstanding loans at 28 banks reached about 14.9 million billion VND, an increase of nearly 10% compared to the beginning of the year.

Bad debt "swells" in absolute value

The "Big 4" banking group alone accounts for nearly VND7.49 trillion, equivalent to 50% of the total outstanding loans of the entire system. Of which, Vietinbank leads the loan growth with more than 10%, the lowest is BIDV at about 6%.

The data also shows that Saigonbank (SGB) is a rare bank that recorded a decrease in outstanding loans (-7.2%) in a very vibrant overall picture. On the contrary, NCB (NVB) had the highest growth rate of 21.7% after 6 months.

Next, a series of banks have outstanding growth rates compared to the industry average such as VPBank (18.8%), HDBank (17.8%), ABBank (16%)...

Data: Semi-annual financial statements 2025

The total value of bad debt as of the end of June 2025 at 28 banks reached VND294,215 billion, an increase of more than 12% compared to the beginning of the year. In terms of structure, most of the increase came from the substandard debt group (group 3) and the group with the possibility of losing capital (group 5).

However, the average bad debt ratio of listed banks decreased from 2.16% at the end of Q1-2025 to 2.04% at the end of Q2, according to Wichart data.

A stock analyst said that in the case of a sharp increase in total outstanding loans, while bad debt does not decrease, the ratio of bad debt to total outstanding loans is still "better".

Usually, newly disbursed loans have not yet turned into bad debt because the time has not been long enough for them to become overdue.

Not to mention that in the context of loosening monetary policy, debt restructuring may be more favorable, helping many loans continue to be extended instead of being recorded as bad debt.

BIDV's bad debt increases rapidly

In terms of absolute value, BIDV (BID) attracted attention when it had bad debt at the end of June 2025 of more than VND 43,140 billion, an increase of more than VND 14,100 billion after half a year, contributing greatly to the increase in bad debt of the whole system. Of which, BIDV's debt with the possibility of losing capital increased by 45%, reaching VND 28,701 billion at the end of the second quarter.

In the remaining Big 4 group, Vietinbank and Vietcombank also increased bad debt but at a lower level. At Agribank alone, debt with the potential for capital loss decreased by more than 13%, to VND 19,583 billion, causing the bad debt ratio to slightly decrease.

Bad debt ratio in banks (%)

VPBank is also among the top banks with the largest "bloated" bad debt scale with 32,945 billion VND as of June 30, an increase of more than 3,876 billion VND (equivalent to 13.3%) compared to the beginning of the year.

TPBank and Sacombank also increased by VND2,034 billion (53%) and VND1,516 billion (11.7%) respectively. SHB also increased nearly VND1,580 billion in bad debt after half a year.

In the group of smaller banks, PGBank and Nam A Bank (NAB) witnessed a significant increase in bad debt value, 42.5% and 40% respectively.

On the contrary, there are also a few banks with bad debt balance decreasing after the first six months of the year including NVB, VietABank, Agribank, ACB and ABBank...

Deposit growth at many banks is slowing down?

According to data from Wichart, in the first 6 months of the year, the bad debt balance (from group 3 to group 5) of the entire banking industry increased by more than 16% compared to the end of 2024, reaching VND 267,329 billion - this is a record high. Meanwhile, at the same time, the risk provision balance of banks reached VND 213,393 billion, increasing by only 3.2%.

On another note, bank deposit growth is slowing, especially in 2025. To compensate, banks are stepping up issuance of securities, including bonds, with a marked increase from late 2024 to 2025.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/no-kha-nang-mat-von-cua-bidv-tang-vot-cuc-mau-dong-toan-nganh-ra-sao-20250815200340415.htm