Can Trump Really End the Conflict in Ukraine “In 24 Hours”?
Báo Dân trí•09/11/2024
(Dan Tri) - According to military analysts, it is difficult for anyone, no matter how talented, to solve a complex problem like the Ukraine conflict in such a short period of time.
Mr. Zelensky met Mr. Trump during his visit to the US in September (Photo: Reuters).
The US presidential election ended with the victory declared by the country's media as belonging to candidate Donald Trump. Now, public attention is focused on the issue: how Ukraine's military-technical cooperation with the new White House administration will develop and what Trump's victory means for Moscow and Kiev. During the election campaign, Trump repeatedly stated that if elected, he would be able to end the conflict in Ukraine before his official inauguration on January 20, 2025, and "do it within 24 hours". However, according to military analysts, it is difficult for anyone, no matter how talented, to solve a problem as complex as the Ukrainian conflict in such a short period of time. So far, apart from the promise to end the conflict in Ukraine before his official inauguration, Trump's team has not provided any details on how the President-elect will implement his plan. And in fact, Trump cannot do that without being sworn in, because until noon on January 20, 2025, Trump will still have no power, especially in the field of foreign policy. Until then, Joe Biden will still be president. According to sources, after being officially inaugurated, the 47th President of the United States will be able to form a team to solve the Ukraine problem. Only then can he begin to implement his plans. There cannot be two governments in Washington with directly opposing views. After that point, we can talk about the prospect of ending the armed conflict in Ukraine. Hypothetically, Trump could end the Ukrainian conflict, but the question is under what conditions and who will be declared victorious. At this stage, the Western alliance, including the United States of course, is not at all comfortable with ending the wars on Russian President Vladimir Putin's terms. For example, regarding Kiev's neutrality, Russia's maintenance of control over new regions in Ukraine and the " demilitarization " and "defascization" of Ukraine. Because if this were done, it would at least mean that the US and the West would have accepted a political defeat in the Ukrainian conflict. In other words, everything the US and Europe have done so far has been in vain and has had no military- political impact. And there is no reason to believe that the new US administration will follow this path. With the "specter" of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, this could damage Washington's foreign policy credibility. If Trump really wants to end the conflict in Ukraine, (this is of course just an assumption) he must frame the situation in such a way that Russia does not win the conflict (although Moscow has gained control of a lot of territory) and Ukraine does not lose - that is, it has preserved its independence and sovereignty. And in this regard, it is important for the West that Kiev be the first to declare its desire to end the conflict on such terms, so that it is not solely a Western initiative. And the near future will show whether Mr. Trump will be able to resolve the current contradictions in such an effective way. Thus, making it appear that the West has not lost, Russia has not won, and Ukraine has not been defeated. Of course, this will not happen within 24 hours, even in the wildest imagination. What the future US President certainly has in his “arsenal” are economic leverage and military power. The new administration in Washington can put pressure on Moscow (by increasing sanctions) and can put Kiev in an almost hopeless situation by reducing aid to weapons and military equipment. In other words, the US clearly has options (although this is not a complete list) to increase pressure on the parties to the conflict. But the main question is whether Moscow will agree to such proposals and whether in the time remaining before January 20, 2025, Russia will continue its policy of "fait accompli", that is, direct victory on the battlefield, to orient the situation in a direction more favorable to itself.
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