Novak Djokovic has won the Paris Masters six times, but Roger Federer and Andy Murray have only won it once, and Rafael Nadal has only reached the final once.
The "Big 3" of tennis dominate at Masters 1000 tournaments in much the same way they dominate at Grand Slams. Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal have won a combined total of 103 ATP 1000 titles. If you include Murray in the "Big 4," that number rises to 117.
In many Masters 1000 tournaments, they rarely let the championship slip into the hands of anyone outside their group. The "Big 3" only missed out on the title once at Indian Wells between 2004 and 2017. The "Big 4" won 12 of the 15 titles at Miami between 2005 and 2019. Nadal won 10 times in Rome and 11 times in Monte Carlo, while Djokovic won a total of eight titles at those two tournaments. In other events, it is rare for the final to be without a member of the "Big 3".
However, there is one exception in the ATP 1000 system: the Paris Masters, which starts today, October 30th. In the past, Djokovic has won it six times. But Federer and Murray have only won it once, and Nadal has never been crowned champion.
Djokovic wins his sixth title at the Paris Masters in 2021. Photo: AP
Last year, 19-year-old Holger Rune won his first Masters 1000 title in Paris, joining a list of surprise champions since 2010 that includes Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, Jack Sock, and Karen Khachanov. None of them had ever won another Masters 1000 singles title. Three others, Denis Shapovalov, Filip Krajinovic, and Jerzy Janowicz, reached their only Masters 1000 finals in their careers, also in Paris.
Several factors make Paris different, including the fact that it's the last major tournament of the year for everyone. Former tennis player Brad Gilbert, now an ESPN pundit, commented: "Players come here tired, which makes it very unpredictable."
But physical fitness isn't the only reason for surprises. Age and family also play a significant role. Vedran Martic, Khachanov's coach, mentioned that the Russian player was only 22 years old when he won. He explained that younger and lower-ranked players work harder to find success in the final event, after a long and difficult season. They don't usually go deep into weekly tournaments like top players. This gives them fresher legs and more energy at the end of the season.
Older players are also more likely to have wives and children. Their families are eagerly awaiting the start of the two-month break between seasons, so a defeat isn't necessarily a bad thing for them. As for those in the top eight of the Race to Turin rankings, they'll probably be thinking more about the ATP Finals – the prestigious event that takes place just a week after the Paris Masters.
Craig Boynton, coach of world number 11 Hubert Hurkacz, said the courts in Paris don't bounce well, making it difficult for players to set up rallies and win points quickly. "That's causing mental and physical fatigue," Boynton said.
Hurkacz's coach – who just lost the ATP 500 final in Basel – emphasized that fatigue in Paris is often more mental than physical. "Attitude is the most important thing," Boynton added. "Many people come to Paris thinking about their holiday and they tend to accept an early end to the tournament."
Regarding Rune, who won the Paris Masters at the age of 19 last year, Gilbert noted that two factors contributed to the Danish player's victory: youth and the confidence gained from the autumn tournaments. "If you're on a roll, this is a good place to break through," the ESPN expert said.
Rune (right) won the 2022 Paris Masters after defeating Djokovic in the final. Photo: ATP
In 2018, Khachanov had just won the championship in Moscow and arrived in Paris in top form. "He also plays well on indoor hard courts and enjoys the atmosphere in Paris," Martic, Khachanov's coach, further explained.
The scheduling of major players is also a factor. Federer withdrew from or skipped the Paris Masters four times between 2010 and 2019, partly because his home tournament in Basel took place the week before. The "Swiss Express" not only won Basel seven times and reached the final twice during that period, but he also devoted significant energy to supporting the event.
In fact, many top players value the ATP Finals more than the Paris Masters. Federer has withdrawn from the ATP 1000 tournament at the Paris Masters in three out of four instances, but still participated in the ATP Finals. Nadal has also participated in the ATP Finals four times after withdrawing from or abandoning the Paris Masters due to injury.
The most motivated players in Paris, besides the young talents, are those who need points to compete for a spot in the ATP Finals. According to Gilbert, this year the players will be more serious at the Paris Masters because the ATP has a new prize money distribution system. $20 million will be distributed among the 30 players with the most accumulated points from Masters 1000 tournaments and the ATP Finals. "That's a lot of money, and I guess those who are close to the prize fund will really jump into the fight in Paris," Gilbert said.
But things will be more difficult for those looking to make a breakthrough at Accor Arena this year, as Djokovic is in top form. The greatest Masters 1000 player, who reached the final of the Paris Masters in seven of the last eight tournaments, has just had a month and a half of rest. So, despite the unexpected factors and the advantage for the younger generation, the 36-year-old's chances of being in the final in Paris remain very high.
Nhan Dat
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