Turkish relations

Reuters reported yesterday, May 30th, that US President Joe Biden said that in a phone call on May 29th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated Ankara's desire to purchase F-16 fighter jets from the United States. In response, Biden said Washington wants Ankara to drop its opposition to Sweden joining NATO. The exchange took place when President Biden called to congratulate President Erdogan on his re-election for a third five-year term following the May 28th election.

Is it a give and take?

The U.S. government has repeatedly denied claims that the F-16 sale was delayed in order to secure Turkish approval of Sweden's and Finland's NATO membership applications, according to Reuters. However, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu asserted in January that the U.S. had made it clear that the approval of the NATO membership applications would be positively evaluated by the U.S. Congress .

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Joe Biden at the NATO summit in Spain on June 29, 2022.

Türkiye hoped the U.S. would approve a $20 billion package of F-16s and spare parts, but the deal stalled due to U.S. Congress's opposition to Ankara's refusal to greenlight its NATO expansion plans. A smaller $259 million package, involving upgrades to the avionics software for Turkey's F-16 fleet, was approved by Congress a few days after Ankara approved Finland's NATO membership application.

Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May 2022, nearly three months after Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine. Turkey approved Finland's NATO application in late March, but continued to oppose Sweden, arguing that Stockholm harbored members of groups Ankara considers terrorist.

Re-elected, Turkish President Erdogan calls for unity and action against inflation.

Sweden's potential accession to NATO in mid-July, when the alliance holds its summit in Lithuania, is one of Washington's priorities. Therefore, observers believe the first test for President Erdogan in relations between Turkey and the West after his re-election will take place at the upcoming NATO summit. At the summit, President Erdogan will be asked to lift Turkey's veto on Sweden's NATO membership, according to The Guardian.

The relationship over the next 5 years

While the U.S. and Europe may seek Türkiye's support on some issues, such as Sweden's NATO membership, observers believe the relationship will remain difficult in other areas, such as Turkey's accession to the European Union (EU). Negotiations on EU accession are stalled due to the decline of democracy in Türkiye under President Erdogan, according to AP.

Under President Erdogan, Turkey has strengthened its military presence in the Middle East and consolidated its ties with Russia. However, he has taken a "balancing act" diplomatically since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, opposing Western sanctions against Russia and sending drones to Kyiv, according to Euronews.

Why hasn't Türkiye sent S-400 missiles to Ukraine as the US wanted?

Observers believe that President Erdogan does not want to completely sever ties with the West, but rather wants to do things his own way, and that he will continue to have a contentious relationship with the West. Arda Tunca, an independent economist in Turkey, commented: "Türkiye is breaking away from the West, and although it is a NATO member in spirit, Türkiye is no longer part of NATO."

Meanwhile, Galip Dalay, an expert at the Chatham House research organization (UK), commented: "The next five years of President Erdogan mean more geopolitical balancing acts between Russia and the West. Turkey and the West will cooperate wherever it suits Türkiye's interests, and this will fragment bilateral relations."

Putin spoke with Erdogan by phone.

The TASS news agency reported yesterday, citing a Kremlin statement, that in a telephone conversation on May 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized "President Erdogan's enormous contribution to the development of Russia-Turkey relations in a constructive and mutually beneficial way." The two leaders also noted that "the support of the Turkish people for their leader opens up additional prospects for expanding practical bilateral cooperation in various fields."

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