Having fallen 44 points from its peak, does the VN-Index still have a chance to recover?

After a week of falling more than 44 points from its historical peak, many securities companies believe that the VN-Index is entering a consolidation phase and testing supply and demand.

Investors retreated to a defensive stance, causing liquidity on the exchanges to plummet. Photo: Phuong Lam .

The VN-Index experienced a volatile trading week as selling pressure continued after conquering the historical peak of 1,920-1,940 points. The index gradually retreated to the support area of ​​1,860-1,880 points amidst a majority of trading sessions dominated by red and strong market divergence occurred across the entire market.

Large-cap stocks, especially those within the Vingroup ecosystem and the banking sector, became a significant drag on the overall index's performance, recording a predominantly downward trend. Meanwhile, significantly weakened liquidity in the last two trading sessions of the week indicated a cautious sentiment among domestic investors.

Foreign investors also extended their net selling streak with a total value of over 3,000 billion VND this week.

At the close of the trading week, the VN-Index stood at 1,877.13 points, down 44.47 points (-2.3%) from the previous week.

The pressure for adjustment is not over yet.

In a newly released report, VCBS Securities Joint Stock Company suggests that the VN-Index is showing signs of a technical rebound after a sharp correction to the important support zone of 1,850-1,860 points.

Technically, the index closed with a candlestick pattern similar to a Hammer, driven by increased buying pressure in the afternoon. On the daily chart, although indicators maintain a downward trend, active capital flows remain stable. This raises expectations that the VN-Index may soon stabilize around the 1,850 point level.

On the hourly chart, the index is likely to continue fluctuating with alternating periods of increases and decreases to test supply and demand in the 1,860-1,880 point range.

From a trading strategy perspective, VCBS assesses that the market has just undergone a week of correction to the support zone around 1,850 points after encountering difficulties at the previous peak of 1,920-1,940 points. However, the positive point is that demand still showed significant effort to support the index when it retreated to the 1,850-1,860 point zone.

The VN-Index plummeted 44 points last week. Photo: TradingView.

In addition, many stocks and sectors continue to consolidate sideways at low price levels, thus opening up attractive investment opportunities. Given the large intraday price fluctuations, VCBS recommends that investors focus on portfolio risk management and consider exploratory investments in stocks that are attracting stronger demand than the overall market and are beginning to show signs of a rebound after a prolonged period of sideways consolidation.

Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities Vietnam believes that the decline in the VN-Index over the past two sessions is still within the accumulation scenario below the historical peak that the firm had previously predicted.

According to Yuanta, sentiment indicators remain anchored in the low zone, while momentum indicators have returned to a neutral state after the previous strong upward trend. The securities firm continues to maintain the view that this is a healthy accumulation phase and the VN-Index is likely to hold the support zone of 1,850-1,870 points before resuming an upward trend.

For short-term strategies under one month, Yuanta recommends that investors temporarily halt selling and consider exploratory buying in stocks that are returning to an uptrend, especially in the information technology sector or leading stock groups such as banking, securities, and real estate.

From a medium-term perspective (1-5 months), Yuanta stated that although the VN-Index declined last week, liquidity remained below the 20-week average. Simultaneously, the price chart is still in a consolidation phase within an unbroken medium-term uptrend. The securities firm continues to set a short-term target for the rally at 1,970 points and suggests that medium-term investors can take advantage of corrections to increase their stock holdings.

VN-Index could fall further.

Regarding market trends, Tien Phong Securities (TPS) believes that the VN-Index continued to correct in the most recent trading session due to a lack of active buying pressure. However, selling pressure remains low, reflecting a cautious sentiment prevailing among both buyers and sellers. A positive sign is that the index recovered slightly towards the end of the session after touching the support zone around 1,860 points.

From a technical perspective, TPS assesses that the VN-Index maintains its medium-term upward trend after successfully breaking through the previous resistance zone of 1,850-1,860 points, thus turning this area into an important psychological support level. Simultaneously, the system of moving averages remains upward sloping, further confirming that the uptrend has not been broken.

According to TPS, the market is currently in a consolidation phase, and the VN-Index is likely to fluctuate within the 1,850-1,925 point range to balance supply and demand before forming a clearer trend in the next phase. This securities company recommends that investors prioritize a holding strategy, while maintaining a moderate cash ratio to proactively respond to market fluctuations. New investments should only be made selectively when the index successfully tests the 1,925 point resistance zone or retreats to the 1,850-1,860 point support zone accompanied by positive demand signals.

Meanwhile, Vietcap Securities assesses that the short-term correction signal for the VN-Index has been confirmed after the index closed below the MA5 line around 1,905 points and lost the MA20 line in the 1,890 point area.

According to Vietcap, in the scenario of a market rebound, the 1,890-1,900 point range will act as the nearest resistance level for the index. Meanwhile, the near-term target for the current correction is identified in the 1,830-1,840 point range.

From another perspective,ACB Securities Joint Stock Company (ACBS) stated that profit-taking pressure increased rapidly around the 1,930 point level last week, causing the VN-Index to reverse and close the week below the important support level of 1,880 points.

Notably, market liquidity continued to decline during sharp drops, indicating that capital flows remain cautious and bargain-hunting demand is not yet ready to return. Selling pressure was mainly concentrated on stocks that had risen sharply in the short and medium term, such as VIC, VHM, GAS, and BSR , reflecting the clear realization of profits that is currently taking place.

However, ACBS believes that the market trend is not entirely negative, as many other stocks have maintained a sideways consolidation phase for several months. This indicates that capital is still quietly seeking new opportunities and raises expectations of a shift towards groups of stocks that have not yet risen sharply during the upcoming correction phase.

In the short term, ACBS forecasts that the VN-Index is likely to continue facing downward pressure and retreat to test key support levels around 1,850 points, and further to the 1,780-1,800 point range, which could help balance supply and demand in the market.

Source: https://znews.vn/roi-44-diem-tu-dinh-vn-index-co-con-co-hoi-vuc-day-post1653863.html