There are unlikely to be any big surprises.

The second round of the French parliamentary elections, scheduled for July 7th, will continue to witness a fierce confrontation between the three largest political blocs: the National Rally (RN) and its allies, the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, and the outgoing majority of President Macron.

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves a polling station in Le Touquet on June 30, 2024. (Source: Xinhua)

The second round of the election will take place in 500 constituencies, with more than 1,000 candidates competing for the remaining 577 seats in Parliament, after 76 candidates were elected in the first round.

Approximately 30,000 police and gendarmes were deployed at polling stations, including 5,000 in the capital and suburbs of Paris, highlighting the level of tension and potential for instability in this event, which is crucial to the political life of France.

Entering the second round, RN held a lead in 258 out of 439 participating constituencies. The challenge for this nationalist and populist movement was no longer to win, but to secure enough votes to form an absolute majority in Parliament and establish a new government on its own.

Conversely, preventing the far-right from gaining an absolute majority is also a key objective for the outgoing majority and the left-wing coalition. Together, they have formed a "Republican Front" against the RN, employing a strategy of withdrawing competing candidates to concentrate votes.

The first round of the election saw record competition, with 308 constituencies having 3 or 4 candidates competing in the second round. But in less than 48 hours after the first round results, 221 candidates, mostly from the NFP (131) and the presidential camp (82), announced their withdrawal. These were all candidates who were considered unlikely to win in the second round.

A coordinated mass withdrawal by political rivals could strip the RN of its absolute majority. However, the actual outcome will depend on the specific election messages of each party and, a key factor, the decision of voters to shift their ballots when their supported candidates withdraw or are disqualified.

Ahead of the second round of elections, Marine le Pen, the leader of the outgoing RN group in Parliament, expressed confidence that her party could reach around 270 seats in the new legislature.

However, according to an OpinionWay poll, the RN may only win between 205 and 230 seats, far short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. The left-wing NFP coalition is projected to win between 145 and 175 seats, while the presidential party will have around 130 to 162 seats and the Republican Party (LR) between 38 and 50 seats.

The survey also showed that over 40% of French voters believe that no political group in the three main electoral blocs will win an absolute majority, while only 35% believe that the far-right will achieve this goal.

The poll results also align with the views of political observers and the press and media, according to which the second round of the French general election will be very close but without too many surprises.

However, the far-right party and its allies won the most seats, turning President Emmanuel Macron's outgoing majority into a minority and forcing him to face many difficulties in the remaining three years of his term.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/bau-cu-quoc-hoi-phap-se-kho-co-bat-ngo-lon-277768.html