What if Google was broken up?

Google, split, Meta image 1

Google has lost two major antitrust cases in the United States in the past year. The company is under pressure from regulators, its stock has stagnated, and its search revenue is threatened by artificial intelligence.

Faced with this situation, US officials are wanting Google to sell parts such as the Chrome browser, advertising network and possibly the Android operating system. However, instead of resisting to the end, some experts say the company should proactively split itself into many independent units.

If it happens, it would be a Silicon Valley-esque “power move”—doing to yourself what the government is about to do to you. It could help Google reclaim its image as a “Don’t be evil” slogan.

Should the giant ship be broken up?

Gil Luria, an analyst at DA Davidson & Company, believes that Google has become an overly complex organization, like a disjointed collection of many unrelated businesses: from Waymo self-driving taxis, YouTube, cloud storage services to search engines and advertising.

In a note to investors, Mr. Luria said that the true value of Google, if broken up, could be as high as $3.7 trillion—nearly double its current market valuation. Waymo, if listed separately, could be valued at the same level as Tesla in the autonomous taxi industry. YouTube is being compared head-to-head with Netflix, a company that is highly valued by investors.

According to Luria, if left to their own devices, Google's engineers could create breakthroughs like the original search engine did in the late 1990s.

Google, split, Meta image 2

Google is likened to a "mother ship" in many fields. Photo: The New York Times .

The idea of breaking up Google is not just about financial gain. Experts believe it will spark real competition, resulting in lower advertising prices for customers, more diversity for employees, and more innovative players in the tech industry.

Barry Barnett, an antitrust lawyer, said the only people who would be hurt by a breakup would be those who benefit from the monopoly. Google currently pays Apple about $20 billion a year to be the default search engine on its Safari browser.

“Google executives could take pay cuts. Startups would be less likely to be acquired by Google. And competitors like Apple could no longer receive huge revenue shares from Google,” he said.

Adam Kovacevich, CEO of the lobbying group Chamber of Progress, disagrees with the idea of breaking up Google. He likens it to a giant cruise ship competing with other “mother ships” like Apple, Meta, and Amazon. “What’s the point of breaking it up into four smaller cruise ships? There are opportunities that only big ships can pursue, like AI,” he said.

For its part, Google declined to comment directly on Luria's proposal, but maintained that forcing the company to sell Chrome or Android would hurt millions of users and the ecosystem that depends on them.

There is a precedent but not many people dare to do it

There are some companies in history that have voluntarily split up when regulatory pressure mounts. AT&T did so in the early 1980s to avoid a hefty fine. More than 40 years later, a similar scenario could happen to Google. But unlike AT&T, founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin still have significant control over the company’s share structure, and it’s not easy to convince them to go under.

Still, Kovacevich, who worked on public policy for Google, said the possibility shouldn’t be ruled out. “Larry and Sergey are very much into bold, unconventional decisions,” he said.

History shows that if you only litigate, you will fall behind. Microsoft fought a monopoly case to the bitter end in the early 2000s—and while it won, it took the company nearly a decade to regain momentum, missing out on opportunities in cloud computing and mobile.

Google may be on that same path again today. And the question isn't just: "Will Google be broken up?" but: "Will they dare to break themselves up to survive and thrive?"

Source: https://znews.vn/se-ra-sao-neu-google-bi-xe-le-post1558027.html