SHS recommends increasing the weighting of BMP shares.

SKĐS - SHS Securities recommends increasing the weighting of BMP shares based on positive factors in the company's business operations.

According to SHS, Binh Minh Plastic Joint Stock Company (BMP) closed 2025 with record business results. Net revenue reached VND 5,510 billion (19.4% growth) and after-tax profit reached VND 1,229 billion (24% growth compared to the previous year). The gross profit margin reached a record high of 46.1% thanks to PVC resin prices remaining at a 10-year low, bringing ROE to 42.7%, almost double that of its direct competitor Tien Phong Plastic.

SHS recommends increasing the weighting of BMP shares (illustrative image).

2026 is a transitional year for profit margins. We project after-tax profit to reach VND 1,200 billion (a decrease of 2.3%). Revenue continues to increase by 12.2% thanks to the construction recovery cycle and BMP's proactive price adjustments, but the gross profit margin adjusts from its peak of 46.1% to 40.4% as input PVC prices increase by 18% following the Middle East oil shock. From 2027 onwards, after-tax profit will recover strongly and grow at an average rate of approximately 13% per year.

According to SHS's assessment, BMP directly benefits from the recovery cycle of construction and public investment. With approximately 90% of its revenue coming from civil construction, BMP is one of the earliest beneficiaries of the residential real estate recovery cycle. Industry-wide plastic pipe production increased by approximately 24% in the first nine months of 2025, while the planned $320 billion in public investment for the 2026-2030 period opens up further opportunities for the HDPE infrastructure pipe segment.

SHS believes that BMP also has advantages in raw material supply and a defensive financial structure. Accordingly, BMP has an internal PVC resin supply channel from TPC Vina and SCG Group, which is an important buffer in a context where the industry depends on approximately 70% imported raw materials. The company has almost no debt, equity accounts for 85% of total assets, and 25-30% of its capacity remains untapped, supporting abundant free cash flow and sustainable cash dividends.

SHS uses a combination of discounted corporate cash flow (FCFF) and P/E ratio comparison to determine the fair value of BMP shares at VND 175,000 per share, representing an upside of +25.1% compared to the current price, combined with an expected dividend yield of approximately 8.9%.

Based on this attractive expected return (total return of approximately 35.8% over the next 12 months), SHS recommends increasing the weighting of BMP shares.

However, SHS recommends that investors continue to monitor exogenous risk factors that could put pressure on profit margins, such as the Middle East oil shock and fluctuations in PVC resin prices, pressure on the VND/USD exchange rate, and the actual recovery rate of the residential real estate market.

Source: https://suckhoedoisong.vn/shs-khuyen-nghi-tang-ty-trong-co-phieu-bmp-169260527213630101.htm