THD shares surge over 200%: What are investors betting on?

After years of being almost forgotten, THD shares of Thaiholdings Joint Stock Company unexpectedly became the biggest focus on the Vietnamese stock market with consecutive sharp increases, officially surpassing the 100,000 VND/share mark and returning to the group of highest-priced stocks on the HNX exchange.

This development came as a surprise to many investors because not long ago, THD had experienced a sharp and prolonged decline from its peak in 2021.

From being among the most expensive stocks on the market, THD experienced a sharp decline that wiped out tens of trillions of dong in market capitalization and brought liquidity to a near standstill. Therefore, the sudden surge of over 200% in less than a month is creating one of the most controversial stories in the financial market today.

In the most recent trading session, THD surpassed the 100,000 VND/share mark after a series of consecutive gains. Notably, the surge occurred with no sellers for many sessions, creating the impression of "no stock to buy." For a stock with such a concentrated structure as THD, this effect immediately triggered a strong FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment among investors.

But what truly intrigued the market wasn't the price increase itself, but the question: what was really behind this surge?

If we look purely at business results, Thaiholdings currently doesn't show a sufficiently dramatic picture to explain such a sharp increase in share price.

The company has set revenue and profit targets for this year that are not particularly outstanding compared to its market capitalization, which has increased by nearly tens of trillions of dong after the recent price surge. This suggests that the money flow is trading on something else: expectations.

And in the case of THD, the greatest expectation is the revival of an entire ecosystem that was once very famous in the Vietnamese financial market – an ecosystem closely associated with the name Nguyen Duc Thuy, also known by the nickname Bau Thuy.

In the investment world, THD has long been viewed more than just an ordinary holding company. Its stock was once a symbol of a period of rapid growth, where every story related to the Thaiholdings – Thaigroup ecosystem could become a catalyst for a surge in capital. At its peak, THD's share price reached hundreds of thousands of dong per share, becoming one of the highest-valued stocks on the Vietnamese stock market.

However, a major event occurred when Mr. Nguyen Duc Thuy unexpectedly divested all his shares in Thaiholdings. This move stunned the market because, prior to this, Mr. Thuy had consistently appeared as the driving force behind the ecosystem. His departure led many to believe that the "THD era" had ended.

But in reality, Chairman Thuy's influence has never completely disappeared from Thaiholdings.

Currently, Thaiholdings still maintains very deep ties to the former ecosystem of Mr. Thuy's family. The current chairman of the company is Mr. Thuy's younger brother. Meanwhile, Thaiholdings still holds a significant ownership stake in Thaigroup, a company that owns many large assets within this ecosystem.

This is precisely why the market has always held an unspoken belief that even though Mr. Nguyen Duc Thuy has divested his shares, the "Bau Thuy DNA" is still very much present in THD. And in the Vietnamese stock market, confidence in a businessman sometimes has an even greater influence than financial reports.

Notably, THD's surge coincided with a resurgence of information regarding Thaigroup's large-scale investment plans. Most notably, there was the story of a mega tourism and entertainment project in Ninh Binh with an estimated total investment of approximately 128,000 billion VND.

According to market information, this project is envisioned as a massive complex encompassing an urban area, luxury hotels, entertainment centers, theme parks, and numerous other features reflecting a "city that never sleeps." There are even reports mentioning the possibility of developing an F1 racetrack and large-scale sports complexes.

Although many plans are still in the planning stage, in the stock market, sometimes just one "big enough story" is enough to create a massive wave of speculation. For THD, this could be the catalyst that brings back capital after years of dormancy.

If you look closely, THD's current upward trend exhibits many characteristics of a stock traded based on expectations of ecosystem re-valuation. Investors are not buying Thaiholdings' current value, but rather the future prospect if major projects are implemented and asset flows within the ecosystem are reactivated.

Besides the narrative factor, THD stock also possesses a characteristic that easily creates large price surges: a highly concentrated shareholder structure and low liquidity.

For many years, THD consistently ranked among the stocks with very low liquidity on the HNX exchange. Some trading sessions saw only a few thousand shares traded. This meant that the amount of freely circulating shares on the market was not very large. And when speculative capital unexpectedly appeared, a shortage of shares immediately occurred.

These are the kinds of stocks where even a short-term surge in demand is enough to drive the price up significantly. The more it rises, the more it triggers a fear of missing out.

The more people experience FOMO (fear of missing out), the scarcer the supply becomes. This effect creates a very characteristic price surge that the Vietnamese stock market has witnessed with many "super stocks" in the past.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/co-phieu-thd-but-pha-hon-200-dong-tien-dang-danh-cuoc-vao-dieu-gi-10418350.html