Stock market tug-of-war: Opportunity to restructure portfolio

The Vietnamese stock market is clearly going through a period of tug-of-war as the VN-Index continues to fluctuate around the 1,330-point mark without being able to establish a sustainable upward trend. In the context of investor sentiment being influenced by many factors such as derivatives contract expiration and the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the short-term market trend may continue to lean towards a sideways state, accumulating with technical corrections.

In the past trading sessions, the market recorded an effort to recover at the beginning of the session. However, selling pressure increased in the afternoon session, especially in large-cap stocks such as VCB, CTG, BID, VIC and VPB, causing the market to turn down. VN-Index closed the session on March 19 at 1,324.63 points, down more than 6 points compared to the previous session, marking the 8th consecutive session that the index fluctuated around this area. It is worth noting that liquidity continued to remain at the average level of the last 20 sessions, reflecting the cautiousness of cash flow when there was not enough momentum to break out.

Developments in the trading session on March 20, 2025

In the current context, analysts believe that the market is facing many short-term risk factors. BIDV Securities (BSC) commented that bottom-fishing demand at 1,320 points has prevented the index from falling further, but technical indicators such as MACD cutting down the signal line and increased liquidity in correction sessions are warning signs of the possibility of further correction.

Similarly, Yuanta Vietnam Securities (YSVN) also believes that the VN-Index may continue to fluctuate around 1,320 points and the divergence will continue. The positive point is that selling pressure is decreasing in the midcap and smallcap groups, but the short-term trend has not really reversed.

From a technical analysis perspective, TPBank Securities (TPS) noted that the VN-Index closed below the MA10 for the first time since early February. If the market fails to maintain the support level at 1,314 points in the coming sessions, the risk of a deeper correction to the 1,300 point zone is entirely possible.

However, many experts still consider this a healthy correction in the medium-term uptrend.ACB Securities (ACBS) believes that the slight recovery after VN-Index approached the support level of 1,320 points is a positive signal, but more time is needed to confirm the new trend.

In the derivatives market, the strong downward pressure in the last session caused the VN30F2503 contract to break the 1,383-point threshold, establishing a downward impulse wave structure. Securities companies recommend that investors should be cautious in the upcoming expiration session, and at the same time apply flexible trading tactics, combining the "short" strategy at resistance zones and "long" at strong support zones.

Stocks stagnate after eight consecutive weeks of gains

From a strategic perspective, this is the time for investors to reassess their portfolios and restructure appropriately. Stocks that have increased rapidly, especially in the banking, real estate and securities groups, should be considered for partial profit-taking to preserve their achievements. Instead, attention should be directed to stocks with good fundamentals, which have not increased much, or are benefiting from macro trends such as technology, infrastructure, oil and gas, and energy.

According to the recommendations of many securities companies, investors should not chase buying at high prices. New disbursements should be made step by step, prioritizing strong support zones such as 1,300 - 1,315 points. Especially during the derivatives maturity period and after the Fed meeting, the risk of unexpected fluctuations is quite high. Therefore, the strategy of "defending first - attacking later" will be more suitable in the short term.

In short, although the market is under pressure to correct, the medium and long-term uptrend has not been broken. This is an opportunity for investors to restructure their portfolios, eliminate weak stocks and select potential stocks, in order to prepare for a more sustainable growth cycle in the coming period.