Stock market: Filtering for opportunities in the wave of public investment

The speed of disbursement of public investment capital is continuously being accelerated, opening up golden opportunities for enterprises listed on the stock exchange.

Public investment helps increase development opportunities for businesses in the construction and materials sectors. In the photo: Long Thanh International Airport construction investment project

Public investment plays a key role

In 2025, public investment is identified as one of the policy pillars and plays a key role in maintaining economic growth momentum, and is one of the top important factors to achieve this year's GDP growth target of 8%.

The 2025 public investment plan is at its highest level in the past 5 years, with the disbursement speed being accelerated, along with support policies. This is a great opportunity for businesses in the fields of infrastructure, construction materials, logistics, etc., opening up many potential investment opportunities in the stock market.

At the Conference on promoting public investment growth momentum in 2025, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh clearly stated his determination to disburse 100% of public investment capital in 2025, considering this a key and urgent task to promote growth and ensure major balances of the economy. The Prime Minister requested to focus on completing the target by the end of 2025, having 3,000 km of expressway, 1,000 km of coastal road, inaugurating Long Thanh International Airport phase I, starting construction of the Hanoi - Lao Cai - Hai Phong railway line...

The volatile global economic context is still a concern for investors. Statistics show that by the end of April 2025, 19/32 open-end equity funds increased their cash holdings, reflecting that the defensive sentiment is still maintained. Investment strategies are now more focused on the internal factors of enterprises, instead of following the unpredictable factors of the general context. In this situation, industry groups that are less affected by the trade war, along with the support from government policies, are encouraged by experts to be prioritized by investors.

Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private economic development opens up a large space for enterprises and corporations, creating momentum for a series of listed enterprises. Along with that, the public investment sector is focused with the goal of concentrating on completing key projects including 3,000 km of highways, Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3, Hanoi Ring Road 4, 1,000 km of coastal roads, Long Thanh airport, Tan Son Nhat T3 terminal, Noi Bai T2, Lien Chieu port, Can Gio port, Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway, new 500 kV line... This is an opportunity for listed enterprises to take advantage of the wave of public investment, along with the Government's promotion policies.

Breakthrough infrastructure construction

Infrastructure construction enterprises are assessed as the group that will directly benefit from the public investment wave in 2025.

Many important projects and works completed in 2025 will help businesses benefit from the increased value of construction and installation contracts and gradually record handover when the project is completed. After the inauguration of Terminal T3, Tan Son Nhat Airport, Noi Bai Terminal was built and is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2025, the listed contractors participating in the construction of these two works are ACV and Vinaconex. A series of other businesses such as Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Joint Stock Company (REE), Coteccons Construction Joint Stock Company (CTD), Hoa Binh Construction Group Joint Stock Company (HBC), Deo Ca Transport Infrastructure Investment Joint Stock Company (HHV), FECON Joint Stock Company (FCN) ... also show strong revenue growth potential in the coming time, when participating in major projects such as Long Thanh International Airport Phase I, 12 component projects of the North - South Expressway Phase II, Ring Road 3 of Ho Chi Minh City ...

For the "big guy" Vietnam Construction and Import-Export Joint Stock Corporation (Vinaconex), despite poor business results in the first quarter of 2025 when net revenue and profit after tax decreased by 2% and 72% respectively compared to the same period last year, revenue forecasts for 2025 are still positive from the construction and installation sector - Vinaconex's core sector.

Vinaconex has continuously won bids for large-scale national infrastructure projects such as some component packages of the North-South Expressway Phase II, Long Thanh International Airport Phase I, Noi Bai International Airport, and Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3. Thanks to the trend of accelerating infrastructure construction, it is estimated that Vinaconex wins bids worth about VND10,000 - 11,000 billion each year, and business results are expected to continue to improve in the coming years.

Analysis by experts from Phu Hung Securities Company shows that the remaining backlog volume (backlog of orders) in 2025 - 2026 of Vinaconex is relatively large, estimated to be 1.8 times higher than the average revenue in the period of 2023 - 2024, equivalent to about 15,500 billion VND, with the main revenue drop point in 2025.

Estimated net revenue of Vinaconex's construction and installation segment in 2025 and 2026 is VND 11,200 billion (up 21%) and VND 11,700 billion (up 5%), respectively.

Or like Deo Ca Transport Infrastructure Investment Joint Stock Company (code HHV) also owns a large amount of backlog. The company said that in 2025, it will continue to implement signed construction contracts, in which the packages of the Quang Ngai - Hoai Nhon and Dong Dang - Tra Linh Expressway Projects will contribute the majority of revenue. It is expected that the construction revenue from the projects in 2025 will bring in 1,392.5 billion VND for Deo Ca.

Deo Ca's consolidated plan for 2025 is VND3,584 billion in total revenue and VND555.62 billion in after-tax profit, growing 8% and 12% respectively over the previous year.

Deo Ca's 2025-2027 backlog volume is estimated at about VND 3,800 billion, 3.5 times higher than the average revenue in the 2023-2024 period. It is known that Deo Ca's construction profit peak mainly falls in the 2025-2026 period.

This enterprise also won bids for a series of large projects such as Long Thanh International Airport Phase I, a number of component packages of the North-South Expressway Phase II, Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3, and Khanh Hoa - Buon Ma Thuot Expressway Phase I.

Mr. To Dinh Hien Vien, an expert at Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company, said that the public investment group is still expected to be the main growth pillar in 2025 - 2026. In terms of stock prices on the stock exchange, when considering past developments, most stocks in this industry group depend largely on developments in public investment policies. Regarding the trend of accelerating public investment disbursement in 2025, Phu Hung Securities sees similarities compared to the period of 2020, when the State accelerated public investment disbursement in the final year of the medium-term 5-year plan. At the same time, the removal of bottlenecks in investment law provisions is expected to create a positive psychological factor in this field, contributing to the revaluation of public investment stocks in the coming time.

Spread the motivation

Promoting public investment disbursement is expected to create a spillover effect on many other industries such as construction materials, electrical construction, real estate, and logistics.

For construction material enterprises, right after the site clearance stage, when projects enter construction, it is the time when construction material enterprises increase consumption. According to statistics from the Ministry of Construction, the proportion of raw materials accounts for about 70% of the total project implementation cost for public investment projects such as bridges, roads, etc. Materials with a high proportion include construction steel (25%), sand, construction stone (20%), asphalt (15%)...

This will bring great advantages to leading enterprises in the construction materials industry, including Hoa Phat Group (HPG) with the largest market share of construction steel, or asphalt enterprise Petrolimex Petrochemical Corporation (PLC), cement enterprises such as Vicem Ha Tien Cement Joint Stock Company (HT1), enterprises with strengths in stone quarries such as Bien Hoa Construction and Construction Materials Production Joint Stock Company (VLB)...

In other industry groups, experts from Agribank Securities Company (Agriseco) commented that the power infrastructure construction group is also expected to benefit directly when the Government is focusing on promoting energy infrastructure, helping to ensure energy security, creating new momentum for economic growth, especially attracting FDI and enhancing the national position, typically the 500 kV line 3 project. In the context of Vietnam's infrastructure developing, the exploitation supply is scarce, the Government has issued support policies such as the Decree detailing a number of articles of the Electricity Law 2024, the adjusted Power Plan VIII, restarting the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant Project, developing renewable energy projects, LNG electricity, offshore wind power, etc.

The logistics industry is expected to benefit indirectly when public investment is promoted and infrastructure is improved. The completed expressways will facilitate logistics activities, becoming a catalyst for economic growth and attracting foreign investment. The seaport and airport group is expected to benefit early thanks to the expectation of promoting major projects such as Long Thanh International Airport, Tan Son Nhat Airport, Noi Bai Airport expansion, Lach Huyen Port, Cai Mep - Thi Vai, and Can Gio International Transit Port. Accordingly, the group of freight and passenger transport by sea and air will benefit from increased cargo volume and operating capacity.

Despite the great potential, businesses will also face many challenges such as global economic instability, legal and site clearance problems, as well as fluctuations in raw material prices.

However, it is undeniable that there are golden opportunities for businesses in the current wave of public investment. With the Government's determination and strong institutional reforms, 2025 promises to be a breakthrough year for listed businesses participating in key national projects.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-loc-tim-co-hoi-trong-lan-song-dau-tu-cong-d297769.html