Stock market new week: VN-Index goes against the world trend, forecast to remain sideways

The domestic stock market last week (September 15-19) failed once again before the threshold of 1,700 points. VN-Index extended its losing streak for the fourth consecutive time, going against the trend of many international markets that are still on the journey to reach the top.

Illustration photo.

VN-Index continues to test the 1,700-point mark, amid declining liquidity, showing that the market will likely continue to move sideways in the short term.

VN-Index failed again to reach the 1,700 point mark

Global stock markets continued their upward trajectory for the week, showing that the climb to new highs is not over yet. The MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI), which tracks the performance of more than 2,500 stocks from both developed and emerging markets, continued to hit new highs, boosted by Asian and US stocks.

Statistics show that last week, the Nikkei 225 (Japan) and Kospi (South Korea) indexes surpassed the 45,000 and 3,400 point thresholds respectively to set all-time highs. Meanwhile, in the US stock market, all three major indexes also set new records last week after the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones achieved increases of 1.2% and 1% respectively, while the Nasdaq increased by 2.2%...

Regarding the Vietnamese stock market, the VN-Index has tested the 1,700-point threshold three times this month but failed. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,658.62 points, equivalent to a decrease of -8.64 points (or -0.52%) compared to the previous week.

VN30 and Midcap stocks also decreased by -0.32% and -1.56% respectively, while Smallcap stocks went against the market trend with a slight increase of +0.13%. The VN30 index fell -0.32% to 1,858.53 points.

Some groups of stocks that increased sharply in the market last week were: Vingroup (+3.9%), seafood (+1.9%), logistics (+1.8%)... On the contrary, the groups of stocks that put pressure on the market were: securities (-2.7%), industrial park real estate (-2.6%).

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices moved in opposite directions. The HNX-Index closed at 276.24 points, down -0.27 points, or -0.1% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the UPCoM-Index increased +0.48% compared to the previous week, reaching 111.01 points at the end of the week.

Market liquidity continues to decline. The average total trading value last week was VND37,264 billion, down -9.3% compared to the previous week. In particular, order matching liquidity also dropped -9.4% to VND33,391 billion.

According to statistics from MBS, liquidity since the beginning of September increased by +130% over the same period, but decreased by -26% compared to August, to VND 40,908 billion. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, total market liquidity reached VND 29,116 billion, up +38% compared to the average level in 2024, and up +29% over the same period.

Foreign investors are still the same. This group net sold -6,495 billion VND, marking the 9th consecutive week of net selling, with a cumulative net sale of -94,858 billion VND since the beginning of the year. Last week, foreign investors net bought HVN (+337 billion VND), VNM (+322 billion VND), MSB (+283 billion VND), while net selling VHM (-838 billion VND), SSI (-803 billion VND), STB (-523 billion VND) ...

Last week, the self-trading sector of securities companies net bought stocks such as: GEE (+ 332 billion VND), VIB (+ 178 billion VND), HPG (+ 100 billion VND)... while net selling other stocks such as: VNM (- 133 billion VND), MSN (- 119 billion VND), MBB (- 94 billion VND).

Can still go sideways

The domestic stock market is moving in the opposite direction to many international markets. The market is still under pressure to adjust, despite the information that the Fed has announced to lower interest rates. It seems that the Fed's interest rate news has been reflected in the price before. Currently, the interest rate futures market is betting on the possibility of the Fed continuing to lower interest rates by 0.25% at the October and December meetings, with a probability of over 80%.

As predicted, the 1,700-point mark is a difficult threshold to conquer. If liquidity tends to decline as it is now, conquering a new peak will be more difficult. Forecasts show that the re-accumulation trend after a series of 4 consecutive months of increase has taken shape.

Looking deeper into liquidity, the average trading value per session was only 37,264 billion VND. This is the liquidity level when the market started to increase from the 1,400-1,450 point range; at the same time, it is also the lowest weekly liquidity level in the past 9 weeks - compared to the peak in mid-August, liquidity last week decreased by -40%. This shows that investors are cautious despite the fact that last week the world stock market reacted positively to the Fed's interest rate cut and the time to announce the upgrade is near.

Technically, according to MBS experts, based on seasonal factors, the market in September often has low performance and currently the VN-Index is also affected by this factor. Although the VN-Index is still nearly 60 points higher than the 1,600 point threshold, some leading stock groups such as securities, banks... have broken through this support threshold. In the base scenario, the market continues to maintain a "sideway" state, the support zone for the market is in the 1,600-1,615 point area, while the resistance zone is in the 1,694-1,700 point area.

Meanwhile, SHS Research also believes that in the short term, the VN-Index is returning to an accumulation trend after a prolonged period of price increase. This is an inevitable correction and accumulation phase after the index had a period of strong price increase, surpassing the historical peak in 2022.

Currently, the market is trading with low liquidity, with an accumulation nature to create a new price base, waiting to further evaluate fundamental factors after the end of the third quarter of 2025. For the general market trend and VN-Index to improve, there must be new growth momentum, then there can be expectations. This needs to be based on fundamental valuation factors and growth prospects in the final period of the year and needs to be carefully evaluated based on the expected business results of the third quarter of 2025.

LONG AN

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-vn-index-nguoc-dong-the-gioi-du-bao-con-di-ngang-post909631.html