The world continues to increase, SJC up to 128.2 million VND

Gold prices in the international market witnessed a new increase in the trading session on the night of August 27 and the morning of August 28 (Vietnam time) in New York. According to data from Kitco, the spot gold price jumped to its highest level in more than two weeks, reaching nearly 3,400 USD/ounce. Specifically, in the early morning of August 28, the gold price reached 3,399 USD/ounce, up about 0.25% compared to the previous session, pushing the December gold futures contract to 3,451.8 USD/ounce at the end of the session.

This price not only breaks through a key resistance level but also reflects growing investor interest in the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.

The price increase comes as the market awaits key economic data from the US, including the second-quarter GDP report and the July PCE inflation index - the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.

Gold is testing resistance at $3,400 an ounce, with the potential to continue rising if inflation data shows price pressures remain high, analysts at Schroders Investment Management said.

However, profit-taking pressure prevented this upward momentum from being sustained in the Asian market. On the morning of August 28, in the Asian market, the gold price turned slightly down, losing about 11 USD/ounce compared to the closing price of the US session, down to 3,386.5 USD/ounce at 8:50 am Vietnam time. The difficulty of the gold price breaking through the threshold of 3,400 USD/ounce shows the cautious sentiment of investors before the US economic reports are released. If the PCE shows strong inflation, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September may be affected, leading to the tug-of-war of gold prices this week.

In the domestic market, gold prices also followed the world trend and increased to a new record level, despite government intervention measures. On the morning of August 28, SJC gold bar prices were listed by businesses at 126.7 million VND/tael (buy) and 128.2 million VND/tael (sell), an increase of millions of VND compared to the previous day and setting a new peak.

Similarly, the price of plain gold rings also reached a record of 123 million VND/tael. This price is much higher than the converted price from the world price, with a difference of up to more than 19 million VND/tael. It is worth noting that the domestic gold price is still climbing even though the State has just made a decision to abolish the monopoly on the production of SJC gold bars, opening the door for many businesses and banks to participate in the market.

This decision aims to increase competition and reduce price differences, but in reality, the effectiveness is not clear, when the demand for buying gold as a safe haven asset remains high due to concerns about inflation and economic fluctuations.

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Domestic gold price sets new record high. Photo: MH

Factors affecting the gold market and new investment channel - silver

In the coming time, the world gold market may continue to be affected by a series of economic and geopolitical factors. First, the signal of interest rate reduction from the Fed is the most important factor.

Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting, and possibly once more in the rest of 2025. Lowering interest rates would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and boost inflation, making gold more attractive.

Analysts at Schroders stressed that, with a volatile policy environment and fragile US fiscal situation, gold still serves as “portfolio insurance”.

In addition, inflationary pressures are rising due to global trade and geopolitical tensions. The escalating US-China trade war with new tariffs, combined with conflicts in Ukraine and other hotspots such as the Middle East, are pushing up energy and commodity costs.

These factors not only weakened the US dollar – which was already down against a basket of major currencies – but also boosted demand for safe-haven gold.

Gold demand in Asia, especially China and India, will account for more than 50% of global consumption by 2024, and will continue to grow strongly thanks to the culture of gold as a symbol of wealth and a hedge against inflation, according to a report by CME Group. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, bought a net 5.5 tons of gold this week, bringing its total holdings to 962.5 tons, reflecting the investment inflows into gold.

With the weakening US dollar and rising inflation risks, gold still has room to rise further, according to technical analysis, possibly breaking out of the symmetrical triangle pattern and heading towards $3,500/ounce or higher.

In this context, silver has emerged as a more attractive new investment with strong upside potential. Silver not only serves a monetary role like gold, but also has strong industrial demand, especially in the green energy transition. According to the Silver Institute, the solar industry will consume a record 140 million ounces of silver this year, combined with demand from electrification and data centers. Silver prices have risen more than 30% since the beginning of the year, outperforming gold at some points.

Experts at Amplify ETFs predict that if the gold/silver ratio returns to its historical average of 65, silver could hit $50-$52 an ounce, assuming gold holds at current levels. Amplify's Nate Miller notes that silver is benefiting from both industrial and investment demand, with ETFs like SILJ doubling its assets to $1.8 billion.

Furthermore, silver is testing the $40/ounce resistance level, and if it breaks through, it could head towards its 2011 record high. Compared to gold, silver is more volatile but also offers greater returns. In an inflationary environment and a weak USD, silver is not only gold's "brother" but also a "hotter" investment channel, suitable for investors looking for diversification and high growth.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-tang-du-doi-sjc-chua-ha-nhiet-con-mot-kenh-dau-tu-moi-nong-hon-2437048.html