World gold price hits new low, selling pressure increases
In recent weeks, the international gold price has experienced a sharp decline, marking a significant reversal after a period of continuous growth. On June 27, the world gold price fell by 52 USD/ounce, closing at 3,274.80 USD/ounce - the lowest level in 30 days, officially breaking the threshold of 3,300 USD/ounce. Compared to the beginning of the week, the gold price has lost more than 2.2% of its value.
The main reason for this trend lies in the stability of the global geopolitical environment. The new trade agreement between the US and China has eased investors' concerns, causing money to gradually move away from gold - considered a safe asset - to higher-yielding investment channels such as stocks and commodities.
Meanwhile, US economic data showed that inflation was steady at 2.7% according to the PCE index in May, but consumer spending unexpectedly fell. This raised expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) could cut interest rates in September - a factor that usually supports gold prices. However, contrary to expectations, money did not flow into gold but instead into other precious metals such as silver and platinum.
“The gold market is in its most subdued period of the year,” said James Carter, a market analyst at GoldMarket Insights. “With a lack of new demand, gold prices are at risk of continuing to correct deeply in the short term.”
Domestically, the price of SJC gold bars is currently fluctuating between 117.5 - 119.5 million VND/tael, about 12.5 million VND/tael higher than the world gold price. Converted according to Vietcombank exchange rate (26,270 VND/USD), the international gold price is equivalent to about 106.8 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees).
Gold Market Reversal: Will the Downtrend Last?
The latest survey from GoldSurvey Analytics shows that market sentiment is turning bearish. Of the 20 analysts surveyed, 55% expect gold prices to continue falling next week, while only 30% expect prices to recover. Similarly, the survey of retail investors found that 49% remain bullish on gold, but the percentage predicting a decline has increased significantly since last week.
“The factors that used to drive gold prices, such as geopolitical tensions and concerns about monetary policy, are losing their impact,” said Emma Nguyen, a financial expert at Global Commodities Group. “With the stability in the Middle East and the US-China deal, the gold market is lacking a catalyst for growth.”
Ms. Nguyen also noted that investors are shifting capital to other precious metals and the stock market as risk appetite returns. New gold buying activity has fallen sharply, while profit-taking has increased, reflecting a shift from a defensive strategy to expectations of a global economic recovery.
One notable point is that the gold price is approaching an important technical support zone. According to Ms. Nguyen, if the gold price continues to decline, the 100-day moving average at $3,170/ounce will be an important test, close to the technical support level of $3,200/ounce.
The absence of major geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Iran tensions that were once expected to boost gold prices, has also contributed to the decline in demand, leaving many investors feeling that the opportunity to invest in gold is fading.
While the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, especially if the Fed rate-cutting cycle begins, the short-term trend is bearish. Factors such as the recovery in equity markets, global economic growth and capital flows into riskier assets are putting significant pressure on gold prices.
Experts recommend that investors should be cautious and closely monitor economic data such as the FED's interest rate policy, inflation index and geopolitical developments to adjust strategies in time. The coming period could be a golden time to test important support levels, before forming a new trend in the third quarter of 2025.
Source: https://baoquangnam.vn/vang-lao-doc-tham-khoc-nha-dau-tu-chuyen-huong-vi-fed-sap-hanh-dong-3167485.html
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