Cash flow into the stock market is still vibrant with liquidity exceeding 30,000 billion VND - Photo: AI drawing
In the morning session of July 15, VN-Index continued to maintain its upward momentum. However, from around 2:15 p.m., profit-taking supply suddenly increased sharply in groups of stocks that had increased sharply in previous sessions, especially the securities and banking groups.
At the same time, selling pressure also spread to large-cap stocks such as VCB, VHM, VIC, causing VN30 to lose nearly 12 points and VN-Index to decrease nearly 10 points.
Is it worrisome?
Speaking to Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Bui Nguyen Khoa - head of the BIDV Securities Market Macro Team (BSC) - commented that today's adjustment session is a normal development after 7 consecutive sessions of increase, with no problems or worrying information.
Mr. Khoa also said that today's decrease is not too big. The market still shows wide differentiation and foreign investors maintain net buying. This can be seen as a proactive adjustment to reduce the pressure on margin debt ratio before entering a new uptrend.
According to BSC experts, long-term growth trends always need to be led by large-cap stocks, along with cash flow rotation between industry groups.
Meanwhile, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - director of individual client analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities - said it is too early to judge a clear trend of the stock market after the last session.
But Mr. Minh is more inclined towards the possibility that this is just a normal correction, occurring after a long period of market growth. Especially with the strong return of net buying from foreign investors, market sentiment is currently quite positive.
However, this expert also pointed out some existing risks that could put pressure on the market in the short term. Accordingly, many stocks have fallen into a state of overbought technically.
The P/E valuation of VN-Index is currently approaching the 10-year average threshold (surpassing the 5-year average), reflecting that the market is in an "overbought" state in the short term, easily leading to adjustment pressure.
"Although it cannot be concluded that this is a sign of a reversal, the risk of the market declining slightly in the short term is quite high," Mr. Minh commented.
Another notable point is that the recent increase has mainly focused on some large-cap stocks, especially the Vingroup group. This poses a risk because if there is strong profit-taking pressure on stocks that have increased rapidly, the VN-Index will be significantly affected.
"The market needs a correction to consolidate the uptrend. Valuations are no longer cheap and the overbought status is quite strong, so a short-term correction is necessary to make the medium- and long-term uptrend more sustainable," Mr. Minh analyzed.
Hidden exchange rate fluctuations
Regarding macro factors, Mr. Nguyen The Minh commented that the USD index (DXY) is likely to increase in the coming time when the Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates for a long time due to inflation concerns, and US government bond yields are on an upward trend.
When the USD strengthens, the pressure on Vietnam's exchange rate may increase, especially when the USD/VND exchange rate increased in the previous period even when the world USD was weak. This is an important macro factor that can affect the market in the short term, according to Mr. Minh.
Despite warning about the above risks, Mr. Minh affirmed that this is only a short-term adjustment and the biggest risk - related to the trade war and tariffs - has decreased. The target of 1,500 points for the VN-Index this year is still feasible, according to Mr. Minh.
In addition, the recent strong net buying by foreign capital also creates positive sentiment.
"Although the net buying value of foreign investors does not account for a large proportion of total transactions, the psychological impact on domestic investors is very large. When foreign investors continue to net buy, domestic investors will feel secure and less inclined to sell off during corrections," Mr. Minh emphasized.
The pressure of shaking from large-cap stocks may continue.
According to Agriseco Research experts, selling pressure is increasing as the market is moving towards the historical peak of 1,480-1,500 after an acceleration period from mid-June 2025 without any cumulative correction.
In terms of valuation, the VN-Index has a current P/E of 14.34 times, just exceeding the 3-year standard deviation by 1 time, so it has generally left the cheap - reasonable valuation zone and entered the high valuation zone. In addition, the derivatives maturity date is approaching, so investor sentiment is likely to be more volatile.
Agriseco Research experts predict that the pressure of fluctuations and adjustments of the main index from large-cap stocks may continue to occur in the next few sessions. Cash flow may soon seek small and medium-cap stocks that have not increased much, in order to seek short-term speculative opportunities during the market fluctuations.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/vi-sao-chung-khoan-quay-dau-giam-diem-rui-ro-dao-chieu-lieu-co-xuat-hien-20250715173152565.htm
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