Vietnam's Coffee Crop Faces Long-Term Challenges

Coffee prices are forecast to increase slightly in the domestic market on September 25, 2024. According to data from the General Department of Customs, in August 2024, Vietnam exported 76,200 tons of coffee, worth 402.2 million USD, down 1% in volume but up 5.5% in value compared to July 2024. Compared to August 2023, output decreased by nearly 10% but increased sharply by nearly 56% in value.

In the first 8 months of 2024, Vietnam exported 1.06 million tons of coffee, bringing in 4.01 billion USD, down more than 12% in volume but up 35.6% in value over the same period last year.

USDA forecasts Vietnam’s robusta coffee output to decline by 1% in the 2024/25 crop year to 27.85 million 60-kg bags and down about 9% from the 2021/22 crop year. This reflects a long-term trend of declining production while global demand continues to increase.

Currently, the domestic coffee market is still quiet due to the limited supply of the 2023-2024 crop. Trading activities are expected to be more active in the coming time when the new harvest begins in about 1 month. The high price right before the 2024-2025 harvest also makes coffee farmers very excited.

Coffee Price Forecast 9/26: Vietnam's Coffee Crop Faces Long-Term Challenges

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on September 25, 2024 as follows: Today's domestic coffee market increased by 1,200 VND/kg, ranging from 120,200 - 120,700. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 120,500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak , Kon Tum, Gia Lai provinces is 120,700 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,700 VND, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 120,600 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 120,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 120,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (September 25) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 120,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 120,600 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 9:00 p.m. on September 25, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 5,320 USD/ton, up 8 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today September 25, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The November 2024 delivery term is 5,024 USD/ton, down 11 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,837 USD/ton, down 9 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,693 USD/ton, down 16 USD.

Coffee price today September 25, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 9:00 p.m. on September 25, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 258.15 - 265.95 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 265.95 cents/lb; down 1.85 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 263.65 cents/lb, down 2.20 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 261.35 cents/lb, down 2 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 258.15 cents/lb, up 2.10 cents/lb.

Coffee price today September 25, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 9:00 p.m. on September 24, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 314.20 USD/ton, down 1.10%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 314.10 USD/ton, down 1.47%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 324.10 USD/ton, up 1.89% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 320.05 USD/ton, up 1.85%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Brazil is facing its worst drought since 1981, according to the Cemaden Disaster Monitoring Center. Low rainfall has damaged coffee plants during the flowering stage, reducing prospects for the 2025/26 Arabica coffee crop.

According to a report from the meteorological agency SOMAR, rainfall in the Minas Gerais region of Brazil last week was only 62% of the historical average. Minas Gerais contributes about 30% of Brazil's total Arabica coffee production.

Another factor supporting the rise in coffee prices is the forecast of Conab (Brazilian Agricultural Supply Agency). Conab has just revised its forecast for coffee production in the 2024 crop year down to 54.8 million bags, down from the previous forecast of 58.8 million bags.

In addition, the weakening USD also helped coffee increase. In the early morning of September 25, in the US market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) measuring the fluctuations of the greenback with 6 key currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) decreased by 0.50%, down to 100.35.

The DXY index has fallen again, after new data showed a surprise drop in US consumer confidence, while Federal Reserve officials are also expressing a hawkish view on the upcoming interest rate cut roadmap.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-269-vu-mua-ca-phe-cua-viet-nam-doi-mat-voi-thach-thuc-dai-han-348379.html