Coffee exports are poised for record highs.

Coffee production at Lacote Vietnam Production and Export Company Limited (in Thong Nhat district). Photo: V. Gia

Although still on a favorable trajectory, the coffee industry faces many uncertainties that could impact it in the future. Strict environmental policies, requirements for origin from Europe, and US tariff policies are all factors that coffee businesses need to be aware of.

Export turnover increased significantly.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , in the first four months of this year, exports in most agricultural, forestry, and fisheries product groups increased compared to the same period last year, with total export turnover reaching over 21.1 billion USD, a 10.7% increase. Six product categories achieved export values exceeding 1 billion USD, two categories exceeded 3 billion USD, and most key products achieved higher export values compared to the same period last year. Wood and coffee were the highest-valued export items, with 5.2 billion USD and 3.78 billion USD respectively, with coffee exports increasing by 51.1%, the highest among Vietnam's agricultural products.

Coffee has been a high-value export commodity for Vietnam in the past two years, and coffee prices are also rising sharply in the global market. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) noted that the average coffee price in 2024 is projected to surge by 38.8% compared to the average of 2023, due to declining production amidst unfavorable weather conditions. The average global coffee price in 2025 could rise even higher if production decreases significantly in major coffee-growing regions worldwide.

According to Nguyen Nam Hai, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnamese coffee is currently exported to over 80 countries and territories; with Europe, Asia, and the United States being the largest markets. This result is not only due to high prices, but also to the export-boosting strategy of businesses amidst a volatile global market. If export growth continues favorably, the value of Vietnam's coffee exports this year could reach a new record.

Similarly, in Dong Nai , the value of coffee exports in the first four months of the year reached nearly 655 million USD, an increase of over 60.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Although the area of coffee cultivation in Dong Nai is no longer large, many businesses choose Dong Nai as a location for warehouses and factories for preliminary processing and deep processing of coffee. This also contributes to making Dong Nai one of Vietnam's major coffee exporting regions.

According to Dinh Thanh Thien, Director of Lacote Vietnam Production and Export Co., Ltd. (in Thong Nhat district), despite the high export prices, coffee is scarce on the global market due to declining production. Vietnamese coffee is favored by many customers, so the company is closely monitoring the market situation to develop appropriate solutions for the future.

Many unknowns remain.

According to experts and businesses, although domestic coffee prices have not changed significantly, export conditions and global factors could still affect prices in the coming period. In particular, the global trade situation is showing unfavorable trends due to trade wars between major countries and the tariff policies imposed by the US and many other countries. Therefore, investors and farmers need to closely monitor market developments to make informed decisions.

According to Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, General Director of Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd. (in Gia Lai province), Vietnam's largest coffee exporter in 2024, the company has collaborated with local authorities to address challenges in coffee industry development, comply with the European Union's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and produce sustainable coffee adapted to climate change. Thanks to close market engagement, export values have yielded favorable results, and partners are increasingly favoring the company's products as well as Vietnamese coffee.

One rather optimistic aspect of the trade war is that coffee may only face low tariffs due to market scarcity and the influence of international coffee organizations. The North American Coffee Association (NCA) has proactively proposed that the US government remove imported coffee from the tariffs currently applied in the US.

Similarly, on April 16, 2025, the Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Vanusia Nogueira, also sent a letter to the US Secretary of State requesting consideration of the coffee industry in import tariff negotiations. The organization argued that coffee is not a product of unfair or reciprocal trade. Coffee is primarily an import into the US because there are no alternatives. The ICO believes that the proposed tariffs, under the "America First" policy, could significantly harm the American coffee industry and consumers, and therefore need to be considered fairly.

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