ADB: Vietnam's economy expected to be stable in 2025

ADB experts say Vietnam's economy is expected to remain stable in 2025. (Photo: Vietnam+)

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for July 2025, published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on July 23, has revised down its economic growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia- Pacific region this year and next. The downgrade is mainly due to an expected decline in exports amid increased US import tariffs and an uncertain global trade environment, along with weakening domestic demand.

However, for Vietnam, ADB experts believe that Vietnam's economy is expected to remain stable in 2025.

Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3%

ADB experts said that Vietnam's economy is expected to remain resilient in 2025 and 2026, although growth may slow in the short term due to pressure from tariffs. Strong export-import growth along with a sharp increase in foreign investment disbursement has boosted the economy in the first half of 2025.

Foreign direct investment commitments increased by 32.6%, while disbursement increased by 8.1% year-on-year, demonstrating the international community's strong confidence in Vietnam's economic prospects.

According to ADB experts, public investment disbursement reached its highest level since 2018, reaching 31.7% of the annual plan and increasing by 19.8% compared to the same period last year. Boosting exports to cope with tariff instability has boosted trade growth, but this is unlikely to be sustained in the second half of the year.

The trade deal with the United States, announced in early July 2025, imposes significantly higher import tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the United States, which is expected to reduce export demand for the rest of 2025 and into 2026. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows that industrial production has slowed since late 2024.

ADB estimates Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.3%. (Photo: Vietnam+)

Despite the increased risks from tariff uncertainty, domestic reforms, if implemented effectively and quickly, can mitigate these risks by strengthening domestic factors. Vietnam’s GDP growth projections have been revised downwards to 6.3% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026. Inflation is expected to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.

Growth forecast downgraded in Asia and the Pacific

In the same Asian Development Outlook, ADB forecasts that the region's economies will grow by 4.7% in 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast. The forecast for 2026 has also been revised down from 4.7% to 4.6%.

The outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific could continue to be affected by escalating trade tensions and US tariffs. Other risks include conflicts and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt global supply chains and push up energy prices, along with a deeper-than-expected slowdown in China’s property market.

“Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. However, the economic outlook is weakening amid heightened risks and global uncertainty. Economies in the region need to continue to strengthen their economic fundamentals and promote trade openness and regional integration to support investment, jobs, and growth,” said Albert Park, ADB Chief Economist.

Growth forecasts for China, the region’s largest economy, were kept unchanged at 4.7% this year and 4.3% next year, with stimulus measures to boost consumption and industrial activity expected to offset some of the impact from a weakening property market and falling exports.

Next is India - the region's second-largest economy - which is forecast to grow 6.5% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from April's forecast, as trade uncertainty and higher import tariffs from the United States weigh on exports and investment.

ADB headquarters in Manila, Philippines. (Source: REUTERS)

Economies in Southeast Asia are expected to be hit hardest by deteriorating trade conditions and uncertainty. ADB now forecasts growth in the subregion at 4.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, down about 0.5 percentage points each year from its April forecast.

Bucking the downward trend are the economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia, whose growth forecasts for the subregion were raised by 0.1 percentage points for both this year and next, to 5.5% and 5.1%, respectively, largely due to expectations of rising oil production.

Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is forecast to continue to cool, thanks to lower oil prices and high agricultural output that will help reduce food price pressures. ADB forecasts regional inflation at 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, lower than the April forecasts of 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively./.

(Vietnam+)

Source: https://www.vietnamplus.vn/adb-kinh-te-viet-nam-duoc-ky-vong-vung-vang-trong-nam-2025-post1051267.vnp