India is in a "two-fronted" situation, Kashmir is like a time bomb

After the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed many civilians, India launched Operation Sindoor, marking a significant change in its approach to counter-terrorism.

No longer limited to training camps in Pakistan-controlled areas (PoK), the Indian army has also attacked targets near military bases on Pakistani territory.

Islamabad's May 7 counterattack further escalated the situation, especially when Pakistan accused Indian missiles of hitting three domestic air bases on May 10.

In this context, China – a close ally of Pakistan – began to show its increasingly involved role. Beijing not only provided weapons such as JF-17, J-10 fighters and HQ-9P air defense systems to Islamabad, but also actively promoted media in defense of Pakistan and skeptical of India’s response. Chinese media called the terrorist attack in Pahalgam an “incident in the Indian-controlled area”, indirectly denying the terrorist element and denying Pakistan’s role.

Beijing's stance reflects three strategies: 1) Supporting Pakistan's position: Under the guise of “regional peace ,” China is legitimizing Islamabad's argument, thereby undermining the legitimacy of New Delhi's response.

Second, the appearance of mediation: Beijing has offered to mediate between the two sides, but lacks any real commitment. The BRICS National Security Advisers’ Meeting in Rio on April 30 did not mention the Indo-Pak tensions, suggesting that the offer was merely symbolic, aimed at internationalizing the issue as Pakistan desired.

Third, keep the conflict low-key: China does not want a full-scale war that would threaten its economic interests, such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But it is also happy if India has to spread its forces between two fronts – Pakistan in the west and China in the north and east.

In fact, the escalation of tensions on both the Line of Control (LAC) and the Line of Control (LoC) has put the Indian military in an unprecedentedly tense position. Although both sides have completed the disengagement from the friction points on the LAC by the end of 2024, there are still a large number of troops and heavy weapons present – ​​with China maintaining around 50,000–60,000 troops there.

Meanwhile, India remains largely dependent on imported weapons from the West and Russia, making it a serious challenge to maintain the ability to respond simultaneously on two fronts. If the conflict with Pakistan drags on, India will need more resources to maintain a power that is comparable to the equipment China supplies to Pakistan.

In addition, New Delhi must also proactively refute Beijing's rhetoric in the international arena, assert its legitimate right to deal with terrorism and reject any attempts to distort the truth.

The question is: is China secretly encouraging Pakistan to escalate? Or is it using pressure at the LAC to divert Indian resources?

In that context, India's long-term strategy needs to include self-reliance in defense, enhanced diplomacy, and heightened vigilance against any strategic manipulation attempts from Beijing.

The National Interest

Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/an-do-mac-ket-giua-hai-gong-kim-trung-pakistan-post1065204.html