Supply and demand pressures have driven sugar prices down sharply.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), positive supply prospects coupled with sluggish demand put downward pressure on sugar prices yesterday.

Báo Công thương•31/12/2025

The global commodities market witnessed a surprising trading session as silver prices suddenly surged by nearly 10.5%, approaching the $80/ounce mark and shocking investors. Conversely, in the industrial raw materials market, the prices of both sugar and other commodities fell sharply. Despite the clear divergence in performance across different commodity groups, buying pressure prevailed, pushing the MXV-Index up by more than 2% to 2,454 points.

World sugar prices fall to short-term lows.

Conversely, the industrial raw materials group saw dominant selling pressure, with 6 out of 9 items experiencing price declines. Specifically, the price of 11-grade sugar fell by over 2.7% to $317/ton, and the price of white sugar also lost nearly 2% to $426/ton.

According to MXV, positive supply prospects coupled with sluggish demand put downward pressure on sugar prices yesterday.

Thanks to favorable weather conditions with abundant rainfall, Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper crop. According to a report by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) released on December 15th, the country's sugar production from the beginning of the 2025-2026 crop year (starting October 1st) to mid-December reached 7.83 million tons, a 28% increase compared to the same period last year. At the same time, in Brazil – the world's largest sugar producer and exporter – the National Supply Authority (Conab) also raised its forecast for the 2025-2026 sugar crop year to 45 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the previous forecast, further reinforcing concerns about oversupply in the market.

In contrast to the increasing supply, demand in major importing markets is showing clear signs of weakening. In Indonesia, the government plans to cut the total sugar import quota for 2026 to just over 3.6 million tons, equivalent to a reduction of more than 18% compared to the 2025 plan. This move comes after the country temporarily suspended import permits from September, aiming to protect domestic production from competition from imported sugar.

Similarly, in China, customs data released on December 18 showed that the country's sugar imports in November reached only 440,000 tons, down 18.2% from the same period last year and significantly lower than the 750,000 tons recorded in October.

Returning to the domestic market, difficulties in supplying sugar through unofficial border crossings have kept sugar prices in the central and western regions high, fluctuating between 16,000 and 17,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, at factories, transactions are sluggish as most trading companies have stockpiled sufficient goods for year-end demand. Some large businesses are currently focusing on debt collection and closing their financial accounts, resulting in a significant decrease in the number of new purchase contracts.

The price of Kon Tum RS sugar remains stable at around 16,700 - 16,800 VND/kg at the factory, while Gia Lai RS sugar maintains a price of approximately 16,600 VND/kg.

Silver prices reverse course and rise sharply.

Closing yesterday's trading session, the metals market saw a return to positive territory, with 9 out of 10 commodities experiencing price increases. In this context, silver continued to be a bright spot, unexpectedly surging after an earlier correction in the week. At the close of trading, silver prices rose nearly 10.6%, setting a new record high of $77.9 per ounce.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), after news spread that China – the world's largest consumer of silver – was considering controlling the export of essential minerals, including silver, silver prices have heated up again.

Last weekend, Tesla CEO Elon Musk responded to a social media post regarding reports that China might consider implementing a licensing mechanism for silver exports starting January 1, 2026. He stated that this was not a positive sign, especially given that silver is a crucial input material for many industries.

Shortly after, yesterday (December 30), the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the list of enterprises permitted to export silver during the 2026-2027 period. This list only added two enterprises compared to 2025, indicating that Beijing is still maintaining a tight level of control over minerals considered vital.

In the global shift towards green energy, silver is considered an indispensable material in the production of solar panels and electric vehicles – two key industries in which China holds a dominant position. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2024, China will hold approximately 78% of the global solar panel production capacity and will also be the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturing hub, accounting for over 70% of total output.

Amidst China's tightening of silver exports, the global market is facing a structural supply shortage as mining and processing capacity fail to keep pace with rising demand. Data from the Silver Institute (SI) indicates that global silver supply is expected to continue its deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with an estimated shortfall of approximately 117.6 million ounces, or 3,659 tonnes.

In Vietnam, domestic silver prices move in sync with the global market, largely due to the reliance on imports for supply. On December 31st, silver prices at major trading centers recorded an increase of over 5% compared to the previous session in both buying and selling directions. In Hanoi, 999 silver fluctuated between 2.466 and 2.496 million VND/ounce (buying price - selling price), while in Ho Chi Minh City, the price was listed at 2.468 to 2.502 million VND/ounce.

Price list for some other types of goods