How Arsenal improved after the break

On the Premier League homepage, expert Alex Keble said that coach Mikel Arteta has made adjustments to the attack, team formation and set pieces to help Arsenal win the last four matches.

Arsenal ended 2023 with two consecutive defeats - losing 0-2 to West Ham and 1-2 to Fulham in the Premier League - and started 2024 with a 0-2 home defeat to Liverpool in the third round of the FA Cup. But the January 8-19 break came at the right time, and Arsenal took advantage of it to spend nearly two weeks training in the UAE in warmer conditions to improve fitness and team bonding.

Declan Rice trains in the UAE while Arsenal is training in the Gulf country. Photo: premierleague.com

"The whole team feels fully recharged after a great training trip with a change in environment and weather," Arteta said, and also sees this as an opportunity to evaluate and analyze performances and results in the first half of the 2023-2024 season.

Returning from the UAE, Arsenal were in high spirits as they defeated Crystal Palace 5-0, Nottingham Forest 2-1, Liverpool 3-1 and most recently a resounding 6-0 victory at West Ham. These results helped the Gunners return to the Premier League title race with 52 points, equal to Man City and two points behind Liverpool.

The attack is on the rise.

Refreshed and re-energised, Arsenal suddenly played with great confidence in the final third and as a result their attacking output improved significantly - evident when comparing their first 20 Premier League games with their last four.

With 16 goals after the training trip to the UAE, Arsenal's average number of goals scored per game more than doubled - from 1.9 to 4 - while the expected goals (xG) per game also increased sharply from 1.9 to 2.9.

In their first 20 games, Arsenal scored using their xG, but have 'overscored' in their last four. The Gunners have not only created more chances but have also converted them at a higher rate.

Bukayo Saka scores to make it 2-0 in the 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest in the 22nd round of the Premier League at City Ground, Nottingham, England on January 30. Photo: AP

In the last four games, they have averaged 17 key passes per game, up from 12.3, while their passes into the box have increased from 13.0 to 19.3 per game. Arteta’s side have also taken more shots (up from 16.3 to 20 per game) and created more chances leading to shots (up from 29.4 to 36.8 per game).

Arsenal have also improved defensively. The core metrics, including tackles, interceptions and errors leading to shots, have remained largely unchanged, but their expected goals conceded (xGA) has dropped by 50%, from 0.8 to 0.4 per game.

Free kick weapon

Declan Rice's switch from aerial duels in the box to set-pieces has been one of Arsenal's biggest changes since the winter break. After taking just three corners in his first 20 games, the England midfielder has taken 12 in Arsenal's last four.

Declan Rice takes a corner kick during Arsenal's 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest in the 22nd round of the Premier League at City Ground on January 22. Photo: Reuters

In the match against West Ham, Rice scored two free kicks for the central defenders William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes to score. With 16 goals, the Gunners are the club that has scored the most goals from set pieces, excluding penalties, in the Premier League this season.

"Set-pieces are one of Rice's responsibilities," Arteta said. "Arsenal have a lot of good aerial players, and Rice can be more of a threat from outside the box than inside it."

The difference in Havertz

Arsenal have improved tactically in their last four games. The win over Crystal Palace was almost entirely down to two first-half set pieces, but the following three games have shown the tactical qualities Arteta has honed in Dubai.

In the wins over Liverpool and West Ham, Kai Havertz was deployed as a 'false 9' and a 'left 8' respectively. These two roles meant the German occupied almost the same position. After a relatively difficult start, Havertz gradually adapted to the new system and made some great runs.

The opening goal against Liverpool was the result of Havertz moving from midfield, receiving a one-touch pass from Martin Odegaard and finishing, leading to Saka's goal.

Havertz's run (dashed arrow) led to Saka's opening goal in the 3-1 win over Liverpool on February 4. Screenshot

Against West Ham, Arsenal opened the scoring from a corner kick that originated with a sharp pass from Havertz. In this situation, the unexpected central midfield position of Ben White (circled below) confused the West Ham midfielders, leaving a large gap between the lines, which Havertz exploited thoroughly.

Rice's pass to Havertz (No. 29) led to the opening goal in the 6-0 win over West Ham on February 11. Screenshot

Fine-tuning Havertz’s role could be one of the things Arteta works on in the UAE, as could Oleksandr Zinchenko, whose form has dipped significantly since his excellent performance in the 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest. At the City Ground, the Ukrainian had a game-high 107 touches and four key passes, his best of the season.

According to Alex Keble, Arsenal's four-game winning streak is a combination of individual performances - Zinchenko and Jesus against Nottingham Forest, Saka scoring four goals in four games, Havertz taking better positions, Rice taking corner-taking duties and a unique tactical setup against Liverpool.

But all those small changes can make a big, lasting difference. The knock-on effect certainly had a positive effect on Odegaard and Saka, and that in turn boosted motivation and belief in the team as a whole.

Furthermore, Arsenal's defence has improved significantly compared to last season, when they conceded only 22 goals - the lowest figure in the Premier League - thanks to Rice's influence in midfield.

"If Arsenal continue to make the difference from set pieces, if the growing confidence in attack can be maintained, then Arsenal will continue the race until May," commented Alex Keble.

Hong Duy

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