OPEC raises global growth forecast, Russia's oil exports fall the most since the conflict with Ukraine, IMF's top 3 "debtors", Netherlands launches first methanol-powered container ship, China takes action to retaliate against EU... are the world economic highlights of the past week.
World economy
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| An oil tanker anchors at the port of Kozmino, Nakhodka Bay, near the city of Nakhodka, Russia, December 2022. (Source: Reuters) |
OPEC raises global growth forecast
Saudi Arabia's Arab News newspaper on July 10 quoted the monthly report just released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saying that this alliance of oil producers has raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 2.9%, from the previously forecast of 2.8%.
OPEC's July 2024 report noted that growth momentum in major economies remained steady in the first half of 2024 and this trend is likely to continue in the coming months.
OPEC’s global economic growth forecast is higher than the World Bank’s recent forecast. In June 2024, the WB predicted global economic growth would stabilize at 2.6% in 2024.
In its latest analysis, OPEC stressed that the global economy will continue to grow steadily at 2.9% in 2025, unchanged from the forecast given last month.
The organization added that world oil demand will increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) and 1.85 million bpd in 2024 and 2025, respectively, unchanged from the forecast in last month's report.
OPEC's report assessed that markets including China, the Middle East, India and Latin America will be the driving force for world oil demand growth.
America
* Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) leaders predict the US economy will slow down and grow by about 2% in the second half of 2024. According to GSAM, stock indexes will be virtually "standstill" due to slowing income growth and concerns about developments in US and international politics.
In a report, GSAM said the above prediction makes the investment landscape more complicated, but still brings many opportunities, including stocks in the field of artificial intelligence (AI).
China
* Trade data due on July 12 is likely to show China's goods exports grew at their fastest pace in 15 months in June 2024, as manufacturers ramped up shipments ahead of new tariffs imposed by major export markets, economists said.
China's exports in June 2024 are expected to rise 8% from a year earlier, according to the median forecast of 31 economists polled by Reuters , up from 7.6% in May 2024 and the best pace since a 10.9% gain in March 2023.
Strong export growth is expected to be one of the bright spots for China's economy.
* A recent announcement on the official website of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the ministry will launch a formal investigation into trade and investment barriers against relevant regulations that the European Union (EU) has applied in its anti-subsidy investigation against Chinese companies.
The investigation was launched at the request of the National Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Equipment, the ministry said. The complaint mainly covered products such as locomotives, photovoltaic and wind power equipment, and security inspections.
The investigation is likely to last until January 10, 2025, but could be extended by three months in exceptional circumstances.
Europe
* On July 10, the Dutch port city of Rotterdam launched its first methanol-powered container ship. This event marked an important step in the "green journey" towards reducing the huge carbon emissions of the shipping industry.
The 13,675-ton Eco-Maestro container ship is scheduled to depart for Antwerp, Belgium, in the next few days, before continuing its journey to Klaipeda, Lithuania, and Riga, Latvia. With the capacity to carry more than 1,200 standard containers, the Eco-Maestro is one of the few ships in the world that can flexibly use both biomethanol and more polluting conventional fuel.
* The Italian energy groups Eni and Spain's Repsol announced on July 8 that they had just discovered an additional oil field off the southern coast of Mexico with reserves of up to 400 million barrels.
Accordingly, the mine has a depth of 525m, was drilled at a depth of 2,931m, located in block 9 - Yopaat 1 exploration well, deep water offshore the Gulf of Mexico and about 63km from the coast.
Eni said the company found the oil field during exploration of blocks 7 and 10 in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico basin.
* Russia's crude oil exports fell the most in the week ending July 7 since before the conflict with Ukraine broke out in 2022.
According to data from vessel tracking and shipping agents' reports, a total of 25 vessels transported 18.7 million barrels of Russian crude oil exports last week, down sharply from 25.66 million barrels the previous week.
Russia's seaborne crude exports fell by about 990,000 barrels per day last week to 2.67 million barrels, the lowest since the last week of January 2024, when storms hampered exports from the Pacific port of Kozmino.
The four-week average of exports also fell by about 215,000 barrels per day to a 20-week low of 3.27 million barrels.
After falling last week, Russia's crude oil exports since the start of the year have remained almost unchanged compared to the average for the whole of last year.
* According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the amount of money Ukraine owes the IMF after receiving a new loan has increased to 13.8 billion USD, making Ukraine the second largest borrower of this financial institution instead of Egypt.
On June 28, the IMF executive board completed the fourth review of the financial assistance program for Ukraine and approved the allocation of a new tranche of assistance to the country in the amount of $2.2 billion.
Ukraine’s debt to the IMF stood at $11.6 billion as of June 28, making it the fund’s third-largest borrower. However, after the new loan, its debt has increased to $13.8 billion, making Ukraine the second-largest debtor, while Egypt has dropped to third place with a debt of $13.6 billion.
The IMF’s largest debtor for many years has been Argentina, which in 2018 received the largest credit line in the IMF’s history, at $57 billion. The three largest debtors now account for 46% of the IMF’s total outstanding debt.
* According to analysis by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), which is closely linked to the unions, the competitiveness of the German economy is quite stable in terms of wage costs .
According to research, labor costs per hour worked in the private sector in Germany will increase by an average of 5% annually in 2023. IMK assessed that this is a relatively high figure compared to many years, but significantly lower than the 6.5% level in 2022.
* Consumer spending in the UK fell in June 2024 due to bad weather, a survey released on July 9 showed, in another sign of the country's sluggish economic growth.
Barclays said spending on its credit and debit cards fell 0.6% in June compared to a year earlier, marking the first monthly decline since February 2021.
Similarly, the British Retail Council (BRC) also said that cold weather was the reason for sales falling 0.2% in June compared to the same period last year, after rising 0.7% in May.
The figures are in line with other signs that the UK economy is slowing, after recovering in the first quarter from a recession in the second half of 2023.
Japan and Korea
* According to the Nikkei Shimbun on July 8, eight leading Japanese companies are stepping up their investment plans in the semiconductor industry , with a value of up to 5,000 billion Yen (about 31 billion USD) until 2029. With high determination and strong support from the government, these companies are becoming the main driving force to promote domestic investment.
The newspaper has compiled the capital investment plans for the 2021-2029 period by eight major domestic semiconductor manufacturers including Fuji Electric, Rapidus, Renesas Electronics, Toshiba, Kioxia Holdings, ROHM, Sony, Mitsubishi Electric with a total capital of up to 5,000 billion Yen.
* Japan's real wages fell 1.4% in May from a year earlier, with the decline extending to the 26th straight month as the biggest wage increase in more than three decades failed to outpace inflation.
The decline in May was larger than a revised 1.2% decline in April, with higher raw material costs and a weaker yen pushing up import costs, data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare showed.
* Korea's leading online job recruitment network Job Korea announced on July 9 the launch of "Kickstart Life in Korea" (KliK), a recruitment function exclusively for foreigners.
With the number of foreigners working in Korea reaching an all-time high of 1 million, online job search portal Job Korea has begun targeting the foreign recruitment market.
Through this new KliK site, Job Korea will act as a guide for foreign workers looking for jobs right from the beginning when they first arrive in Korea.
* Provisional data from the Ministry of Industry and the Korea International Trade Association released on July 7 showed that the country's auto exports in the January-June period this year are estimated to have increased 3.8 percent year-on-year to $37.01 billion, marking the highest level in the first half of the year .
South Korea's auto exports in 2023 hit a record $35.65 billion, up 46.5% from the same period in 2022. Since 2021, auto exports have seen positive growth in the first half of the year on an annual basis for four consecutive years.
ASEAN and emerging economies
* In a recently released analysis report, Qatar National Bank (QNB) said that capital flows and economic recovery have brought the financial markets of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) into a relatively stable state .
QNB’s report highlights the resilience of major ASEAN economies, including Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, to sudden shifts in risk sentiment and capital flows.
QNB noted that strong foreign exchange reserves act as an important buffer to absorb external shocks, saying that these reserves should be assessed against short-term external capital flow requirements as well as other macroeconomic indicators.
* Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is considering plans to resume bauxite exports, following a call from the House of Representatives to lift the ban as part of efforts to develop the economy in mining areas.
In a recent hearing, Maman Abdurrahman, Vice Chairman of the House Committee VII overseeing energy and mineral resources, said the House "strongly encourages" the repeal of the regulation, and suggested that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources should change it to restrict export quotas.
Indonesia has previously banned the export of bauxite and copper from June 2023, after imposing a similar policy on nickel miners in early 2020.
* Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on July 9 that his country could become a partner country of the BRICS group of leading emerging economies before completing the process of joining the group.
At the National Assembly session, Prime Minister Anwar said that Malaysia's process of joining BRICS will take some time before being completed, but the good relationship between Malaysia and BRICS member countries will help the country become a partner country of this group, and affirmed that joining BRICS does not conflict with Malaysia's foreign policy.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/kinh-te-the-gioi-noi-bat-5-117-ba-con-no-lon-nhat-cua-imf-ra-mat-tau-container-dau-tien-chay-bang-methanol-my-giam-toc-trung-quoc-dap-tra-eu-278272.html
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