How does the US presidential election affect the Ukraine conflict?
Báo Dân trí•21/10/2024
(Dan Tri) - The results of this year's US presidential election are expected to have a significant impact on the conflict in Ukraine as Washington is Kiev's leading aid donor.
5 key issues in US-Ukraine relations after the presidential election
As the 2024 US presidential election draws to a close, all eyes are on the race for the White House to see how a new leader might change US domestic and foreign policy, including policy towards Ukraine. Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin has outlined the main challenges Ukraine will face when the next US president takes office and the road ahead is expected to be difficult, regardless of who occupies the White House in January next year. "This election is of paramount importance for Ukraine," Klimkin commented in the European Pravda newspaper. "The United States is an important source of support that Europe cannot provide to Ukraine. Frankly speaking, the survival of Ukraine as a state and a people depends on its ability to secure US aid. If Ukraine wants to achieve this goal, we must understand and navigate US politics ," the former Ukrainian foreign minister stressed. The outcome of the November 5 election is of particular concern to Ukraine, where the next four years of US-Ukraine policy are expected to significantly alter the relationship between the two countries and affect Washington's support for Kiev amid an unresolved conflict with Russia. President Joe Biden has been a strong supporter of Ukraine since Russia launched its special military operation in 2022, but declining support in the US Congress, along with calls from some conservatives to withdraw support for Ukraine, has weakened Washington's ability to send weapons and aid to Kiev. "We need to recognize that for the vast majority of Americans, Ukraine is not one of their daily concerns. This was reflected in the recent vice presidential debates, which focused so much on the United States in every aspect that Ukraine was not even mentioned," Klimkin added. According to former Secretary of State Klimkin, there are five main issues that will become the focus of future US-Ukraine relations after the US presidential election. First , support for Ukraine does not follow party lines. American voters were strongly behind Ukraine at the beginning of the war, but this support has gradually faded as the conflict has dragged on. While Republicans have been more vocal about reconsidering US support for Ukraine, doubts about Washington's ability to continue sending billions of dollars in aid to Kiev have been raised in both parties. "While Ukraine must be steadfast in its dialogue with the United States, we also need to listen to our American partners and understand that they are driven by their own priorities and pressing issues, not ours. That will not change after the election," Klimkin said. Second , the results of the parliamentary elections will play a huge role. While all eyes are on the outcome of the presidential race, a third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives are up for re-election. With Congress required to approve budgets and oversee military alliances, the outcome of these elections will have a major impact on future US-Ukraine relations. “After the election, Kiev will face the challenging task of ensuring that its focus on cooperation with the future president and his administration is not perceived as political bias by the other party,” said the former Ukrainian foreign minister. Third , the US is shifting its focus away from Europe. The American public is more concerned about solving inflation and immigration at home than about conflict and alliances abroad, regardless of who becomes the next president. "Regardless of which US presidential candidate wins, their rhetoric may change, Donald Trump may again 'discipline' Europe, while Kamala Harris may encourage them to take more responsibility, but the result will be the same," Klimkin predicted. Fourth , Trump and Harris have unclear strategies for helping Ukraine. The two US presidential candidates have offered completely different views on the war in Ukraine. If elected, Trump has said he could somehow end the conflict even before returning to the White House, while Harris has remained pro-Ukrainian but avoided specific questions about standing by Ukraine until Kiev wins. "It remains an open question whether the next US president will consider Russia's return to 'acceptable' coexistence with the West a sufficient victory for the US, even if it does not mean a victory for Ukraine," Klimkin added. Fifth , neither candidate understands Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite its long and tumultuous history with Ukraine, the current Joe Biden administration appears to have misjudged Kiev on several key issues. Trump, who blamed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his first impeachment, and Harris, who has little foreign policy experience in general, are not expected to have a better understanding of Ukraine or why the war started. “All sides in the United States have emphasized that Ukraine must decide for itself how it sees its way out of this war. But as soon as the discussion became meaningful, it became clear that not all options were acceptable, except those that did not increase the risks,” Klimkin said. “The United States wants Ukraine to be responsible for choosing future compromises, including the concessions it will have to make to end the war.”
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