Middle East tensions still dominate oil prices; how will domestic oil prices fluctuate this afternoon?

Gasoline prices today, October 3, WTI oil price increased by 80 cents, Brent oil price remained "steady" at 73.9 USD/barrel. Domestic prices this afternoon are likely to decrease following the world price.

Today's gasoline and oil prices, October 3, WTI oil prices increased by 80 cents, Brent oil prices remained "steady" at 73.9 USD/barrel. Domestic prices this afternoon are likely to decrease following the world prices. (Photo: Ngoc Ha)

At the end of the trading session on October 2, oil prices increased slightly due to concerns that escalating conflicts in the Middle East could threaten oil supplies from the world's leading producing region, but a sharp increase in US oil inventories limited the increase.

Brent crude rose 34 cents, or 0.46 percent, to $73.90 a barrel. WTI crude rose 27 cents, or 0.39 percent, to $70.10 a barrel.

An Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure could prompt Tehran to retaliate with an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities, similar to the attack on crude processing facilities there in 2019, said Tamas Varga of oil brokerage PVM. Any of these events would send oil prices sharply higher, he said.

According to Reuters, at the United Nations Security Council meeting on the Middle East on October 2, Israel and Iran threatened to retaliate against each other if attacked.

Capital Economics says Iran supplies about 4% of global oil output, but will Saudi Arabia increase production if Iran's supply is disrupted?

Iran's oil production rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, according to ANZ analysts.

Limiting the session’s gains was a report on U.S. crude inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. crude inventories rose 3.9 million barrels to 417 million barrels in the week ended September 27, compared with the American Petroleum Institute’s estimate for a 1.5 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories rose 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell 1.3 million barrels.

Explaining the increase in inventories, Matt Smith, senior oil analyst at Kpler, said it was due to the sharp drop in refining activity as the refinery entered its seasonal maintenance period.

At a meeting today, the Council of Ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided to maintain its oil production policy. Accordingly, the organization will increase production by 180,000 barrels/day/month from December.

“Any hint of increased production could offset concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East,” ANZ analysts said.

Domestic retail prices of gasoline on October 3 are as follows:

E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than 19,620 VND/liter.

RON 95-III gasoline is not more than 20,518 VND/liter.

Diesel oil not more than 17,506 VND/liter.

Kerosene not more than 17,873 VND/liter.

Fuel oil not exceeding 15,357 VND/kg.

The above domestic retail price of gasoline and oil will be adjusted up by the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade in the price adjustment session this afternoon. Due to the decrease in world gasoline and oil prices last week and the moderate increase in recent trading sessions, it is likely that domestic gasoline and oil prices will also decrease with gasoline prices decreasing by 600-800 VND/liter. Oil prices will decrease less, about 150-300 VND/liter (kg). If as predicted, domestic gasoline prices will not be able to set a hat-trick of increases.

At the joint management session on September 26, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 679 VND/liter, RON 95-III gasoline increased by 756 VND/liter, diesel oil increased by 463 VND/liter, kerosene increased by 322 VND/liter, and fuel oil increased by 531 VND/kg.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-xang-dau-hom-nay-310-cang-thang-trung-dong-van-chi-phoi-gia-dau-trong-nuoc-chieu-nay-se-bien-dong-ra-sao-288566.html