Stocks surpass historical peak: Will they continue to increase today, setting a new record of 1,600 points?

Normally, after reaching a peak, stocks will have a correction phase as investors take profits. However, according to many experts, it is very likely that the indices will continue to increase for a few more sessions in the coming days before adjusting.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh - Head of Macroeconomics & Market Strategy, Analysis Division of VNDirect Securities Company - predicted: In the short term, investors' cash flow will continue to increase into the market, especially foreign investors' cash flow. This will help the market continue its upward trend in the next few sessions.

"In this context, it is difficult to predict how much the VN-Index will increase, but it is likely to exceed the 1,600-point threshold at least. After that, there will be profit-taking moves by investors who bought before the stock market surpassed its historical peak to realize profits. Therefore, the market may reverse," said Mr. Hinh.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Viet Quang, Business Director of Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, also commented: In recent days, the cash flow into the stock market has been too large and too hot. This will push the stock price peak up and the market will form a pine tree pattern. It is forecasted that in the next few sessions, stocks will continue to increase and surpassing the 1,600 point mark is almost certain because investors are very excited.

Stocks are predicted to surpass historical peaks, reaching 1,600 points. (Illustration: People's Army Newspaper).

“Regarding stocks, it is predicted that many codes may continue to increase to the ceiling price for 3-4 more sessions. However, investors should also be cautious, because the market can reverse, and after just one session, the entire market will rush out. Therefore, when there are signs of a sell-off, individual investors will be stopped,” Mr. Quang warned.

According to experts from ASEAN Securities, VN-Index has actually confirmed entering a new growth cycle after pressure from US reciprocal tax risks.

Meanwhile, a newly published strategic report by Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) stated that the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to an emerging market by FTSE Russell is very close. When the upgrade becomes a reality, it is expected that the Vietnamese market will attract large capital flows from global reference funds of about 1 billion USD, contributing to improving liquidity and valuation.

VDSC predicts that VN-Index may head towards the 1,513 - 1,756 point range within the next 6 - 8 months.

Don't be too greedy to buy

According to Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, in the context of stocks surpassing historical peaks and unpredictable trends like now, investors need to be extremely cautious when participating in the market, especially with stocks that have increased rapidly.

“For investors who are still on the sidelines and have not yet made a decision, they should not rush to invest at this time, but should wait and monitor the market adjustment to make an appropriate decision,” Mr. Hinh advised.

According to Mr. Hinh, at this time the stock market is relatively hot and valuations are no longer cheap, so new investors need to be careful to manage risks and not be too afraid of missing opportunities.

"In particular, investors should not use margin (financial leverage) to jump into the market when it is hot like now," Mr. Hinh commented.

According to Mr. Quang, when credit flows are pumped out, it will find an asset channel to invest in. And the stock market is the destination. “However, like a hot coal passing from one person to another, those who are not quick will easily get burned. Therefore, investors who know enough and have the courage should stop at the right time,” said Mr. Quang.

Therefore, Mr. Quang recommends that at a time when the stock market is high like now, investors should not be too greedy and continue to invest. Instead, they should calculate to sell to realize profits and wait for the right market times to disburse.

According to BETA Securities Company, the strong cash flow is not only spreading to large-cap stocks but also expanding to midcap and penny stocks, creating a vibrant and broadly consensual trading picture. With this positive context, investors holding stocks can continue to hold positions in stocks with good fundamentals and stable liquidity.

However, for stocks that have reached profit expectations, considering partial profit-taking to preserve the results is a reasonable choice. For new investors, now is not the right time to "buy in"; instead, they should patiently observe and choose stocks with clear growth stories, not yet overheated and still have room to break out in the coming sessions.

Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company recommends that after the VN-Index surpassed its historical peak price, demand continued to increase quite strongly for the securities group when liquidity remained unusually high and the small-medium capitalization real estate group, when many stocks in this industry group were still below the peak price range in 2023 and 2024, while leading stocks had surpassed their historical peak.

Investors need to carefully evaluate short-term transactions and assess the risks to their current portfolio. Realize partial profits for stocks that meet expectations and are starting to weaken.

CSI experts recommend that the price increase and liquidity are in sync and support each other, indicating that the upward trend is likely to continue in the next session. However, at the present time, chasing stocks will face the risk of correction when stocks have not yet reached the account in the next sessions, so investors need to continue to maintain a cautious stance, limit chasing stocks and continue to maintain a higher proportion of cash than stocks.

At the close of trading on July 28, the VN-Index increased by more than 26 points (1.72%) to 1,557.42 points. This is an all-time high. Earlier, in the morning session, the index also surpassed the historical peak set in 2022 when it reached 1,545 points.
Not only positive in terms of scores, liquidity on the HoSE floor also recorded an explosion with the order matching value reaching 44,300 billion VND. This is also a record for the order matching value in a session throughout the 25-year history of the Vietnamese stock market.

PHAM DUY

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chung-khoan-vuot-dinh-lich-su-hom-nay-tiep-tuc-tang-lap-ky-luc-moi-1-600-diem-ar956776.html