Save the Pokrovsk front by all means, Ukraine abandons the eastern defense line

The Ukrainian army accepted to "abandon" the eastern defense line to save Pokrovsk, an action that inadvertently helped Russia break through on all three fronts.

Over the past month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have made some gains along their defensive line in central Donbass, slowing the advance of Russian troops. However, this success has come at a high cost.

In mid-August, the AFU concentrated its forces on the key defensive line between Pokrovsk and Kostiantivka, leaving other areas vulnerable to attack. For example, the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) used this opportunity to advance along both banks of the Seversky Donets River, eventually capturing the Serebryansky Forest, an area that the AFU had controlled since the fall of 2022.

Meanwhile, another Russian force met little resistance as it advanced westward along the Dnieper River and along the border with Zaporizhia province. Minor crises also occurred on the Ukrainian defense line near Orekhiv, south of Zaporizhia, and around Kupyansk, east of Kharkiv.

In recent weeks, the fighting between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka has become increasingly clear. Although sporadic footage of fighting in the area emerged in August and early September, it mainly showed AFU counter-offensives deep into Russian territory.

But geolocated footage now more accurately depicts the timeline of the fighting and clearly outlines the current battle lines. In reality, however, there is no single, continuous “front,” and the battlefield situation remains complex and fluid.

In early August, the Russian 51st Army made a sudden breakthrough north of Pokrovsk, advancing about 20 km between Nikanorivka and Vladimirivka, reaching the Dobropilya-Kramatorsk highway and even appearing on the northeastern outskirts of Dobropilya.

Faced with the dire situation, General Syrsky, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, mobilized troops from many directions to support and succeeded in pushing the Russians back from the T0514 route, but the attempt to completely cut off the Russian breakthrough point failed.

Meanwhile, the Russians continued to increase their reinforcements and adjust their strategy. Initially, the 51st Army concentrated its forces near the strategic town of Rodinske, east of Pokrovsk, but later moved more troops to the breakthrough point. By September, at least four marine brigades had been deployed to reinforce the breakthrough near Dobropilya.

By early October, Russian positions in the region had been largely secured. Ukrainian videos showed Russian troops in Dorozhne, west of Nikanorivka, and Novy Shakhove, even further north, as Russian troops reappeared at Zolotyi Kolodyaz, the “northernmost” point of the early August breakthrough.

While Ukrainian claims of a counter-offensive and the recapture of these areas lack visual evidence, claims such as the recapture of Kucheriv Yar remain unconfirmed. On the western flank of the breakthrough, Russian forces completely recaptured Nykanorivka, Ivanivka and Vilne; on the eastern flank, they advanced towards the villages of Shakhove and Sofivka, reinforcing the Russian flank.

Public data shows that the RFAF still controls a number of key areas, such as Kucheriv Yar, Zolotyi Kolodyaz, Vilne. However, even if Russia successfully consolidates its defenses, a new attack towards Dobropilya or Kramatorsk is unlikely.

Logistical difficulties pose a significant challenge for Russia, as it lacks full control of key routes and settlements in the region, hampering its ability to mobilize forces effectively and protect itself from Ukrainian UAV attacks.

Some analysts point out that capturing Shakhove and Sofivka could improve the RFAF's position in the area; but without control of Pokrovsk or Kostiantivka, advancing on Kramatorsk would remain difficult.

Meanwhile, the southern part of Pokrovsk is currently in a “grey zone”, and although Russian troops have broken through the rubble and reached the city centre, according to Western sources, the RFAF has not yet been able to establish a foothold there.

Meanwhile, the Russians were making progress on other fronts. After years of fierce fighting, they had finally captured the Serebryansky Forest on the north bank of the Siversky Donets River. The RFAF could now organize its advance in two directions: one along the south bank to Dronivka, and the other along the Zherebets River, north of Yampil. The Ukrainian forces stationed in the Serebryansky Forest had apparently retreated.

Across the Severski Donets River at Siversk, the Russians advanced as far as Dronivka and captured the northern outskirts of Seversk. At the same time, the Russians launched a major attack on Seversk from the east and south, capturing several nearby villages. Seversk's defenses were under serious threat.

Furthermore, the defenses of Lyman were under threat, as the RFAF had captured the village of Shandryholove, northwest of the city, cutting off the road to Lyman. The only remaining supply line was also threatened by Russian air strikes, making it difficult to resupply Lyman.

However, the Severski Donets River, which flows south of Lyman, gives the AFU a certain defensive advantage. If Lyman falls, the city of Sloviansk may be temporarily unthreatened, but if the Russians capture Seversk, they will be able to restart their offensive along the southern bank.

The Russian offensive has taken a heavy toll on the Ukrainian defenses, especially the 3rd Army and 3rd Strike Brigade. Many units have lost contact with the main force, leaving the defenses vulnerable. Although the AFU has successfully recaptured some villages, the RFAF is still advancing steadily, especially south of Donetsk and northeast of Zaporozhye.

Overall, while the Ukrainian military has achieved some tactical success in Pokrovsk, the new developments in the situation and the Russian military advances suggest that the conflict will continue to drain resources and manpower from both sides. As the fighting continues, Ukraine’s ability to maintain stability on the front is precarious. (Photo source: Military Review, RFAF, Deep State, Ukrinform).

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