The domestic pepper market is experiencing complex developments, with a slight increase in trading prices on October 16, 2024, but still containing many unstable factors. The forecast for tomorrow, October 17, 2024, is that prices may remain stable, but close monitoring of the latest market developments is still necessary.
Today's pepper prices (October 16, 2024) in key producing regions recorded a slight increase compared to yesterday. Specifically, the price of pepper in Dak Lak was purchased at 144,000 VND/kg, while the price in Chu Se (Gia Lai) was purchased at 143,500 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today remained unchanged at 144,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In the Southeast region, today's pepper prices (October 16, 2024) also showed fluctuations compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price is currently at 144,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg. In Binh Phuoc, today's pepper price is also at 144,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg.
However, world pepper prices showed a slight decrease today. According to the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, the IPC listed Indonesian Lampung black pepper at US$6,744/ton and Muntok white pepper at US$9,233/ton.
Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper is priced at US$6,750/ton. Malaysian ASTA black pepper remains stable at US$8,700/ton; the price of Malaysian ASTA white pepper reached US$11,200/ton.
Vietnamese black pepper prices today fell by as much as $300/ton, trading at $6,500/ton for the 500 g/l variety; $6,800/ton for the 550 g/l variety; white pepper prices are at $9,850/ton.
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| Pepper price forecast for October 17, 2024: Signs of instability hidden behind market stability. |
The disparity between domestic and international pepper prices has been creating certain pressures on the Vietnamese pepper market. Although Vietnam's pepper exports remained at a positive level in the first nine months of 2024, with total export value reaching US$991 million, the decline in world pepper prices could affect domestic prices in the near future.
Furthermore, pepper production in 2024 is expected to be lower than the previous year, as many farmers are cutting down pepper plants to grow more economically viable crops such as durian and coffee. Estimated pepper production in 2024 is only about 170,000 tons, a 10% decrease compared to the previous year. This is also the lowest level in the last 5 years.
According to projections, Vietnam's 2025 pepper harvest will be almost entirely in February, with some regions extending into March and April, 1-2 months later than in previous years due to the prolonged drought. This will further restrict Vietnam's pepper supply, putting additional pressure on domestic pepper prices.
Furthermore, climate change is also a factor directly impacting pepper production. El Niño and La Niña have been negatively affecting farmers' cultivation and maintenance of pepper gardens, reducing both yield and quality of pepper.
Based on the above analysis, the forecast for pepper prices tomorrow, October 17, 2024, is likely to remain stable, fluctuating between 143,000 and 144,500 VND/kg. However, the pepper market still contains many unstable factors.
Investors and farmers need to closely monitor the latest market developments, including: world pepper prices, domestic pepper production, consumption demand, and the impacts of climate change. In addition, investors should also pay attention to policy information related to the pepper industry, as this is also an important factor affecting prices.
*This information is for reference only.
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