The central exchange rate increased by 16 VND, the VN-Index decreased slightly by 0.58 points, and the WB forecasted that Vietnam's GDP would grow by 5.5% and 6.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively... are some notable economic news on January 15.
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| Economic news review |
Domestic news
In the foreign exchange market on January 15, the State Bank listed the central exchange rate at 23,992 VND/USD, an increase of 16 VND compared to the session at the end of last week.
The USD buying price was kept unchanged at 23,400 VND/USD by the State Bank of Vietnam, while the USD selling price was listed at 25,141 VND/USD, 50 VND lower than the ceiling exchange rate.
On the interbank market, the dollar-dong exchange rate closed at 24,472 VND/USD, down 27 VND compared to the session on January 12.
The dollar-dong exchange rate on the free market increased sharply by 120 VND in both buying and selling directions, trading at 24,870 VND/USD and 24,970 VND/USD.
On January 15, the average interbank VND interest rate remained unchanged for most terms of 1 month or less, except for an increase of 0.02 percentage points for the 2-week term compared to the session at the end of last week, specifically: overnight 0.20%; 1 week 0.30%; 2 weeks 0.57% and 1 month 1.28%.
The average interbank USD interest rate increased by 0.01 - 0.03 percentage points at all terms, trading at: overnight 5.09%; 1 week 5.22%; 2 weeks 5.31%, 1 month 5.40%.
Government bond yields in the secondary market decreased in short terms while increasing slightly in 15-year terms, closing at: 3-year 1.25%; 5-year 1.45%; 7-year 1.82%; 10-year 2.22%; 15-year 2.43%.
Yesterday's open market operations, on the mortgage channel, the State Bank of Vietnam offered VND1,000 billion for a 7-day term, the interest rate remained at 4.0%. There was no winning bid volume, no circulating volume on this channel. The State Bank of Vietnam did not offer SBV bills and there was also no circulating volume of bills on the market.
Yesterday's stock market session, the indices from the opening session remained green until near the end of the session, then selling pressure suddenly appeared, pulling all 3 indices down below the reference price. At the end of the trading session, VN-Index decreased slightly by 0.58 points (-0.05%) to 1,154.12 points; HNX-Index decreased by 2.76 points (-1.20%) to 227.55 points; UPCoM-Index lost 0.29 points (-0.33%) to 86.61 points. Market liquidity was low with a trading value of nearly 14,200 billion VND. Foreign investors net bought more than 32 billion VND on all 3 floors.
In the January 2024 Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank (WB) lowered its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 and 2025. Specifically, Vietnam's GDP is forecast to increase by 5.5% and 6.0% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, down 0.7% and 0.5% compared to the forecast in June 2023.
International News
The World Bank (WB) is steadfast in its forecast that the world economy will continue to slow down in 2024. In a report released last weekend, the organization estimated that global GDP in 2024 will grow by 2.4%, slowing down for the fourth consecutive year (unchanged from the previous forecast), mainly due to the impact of policy interest rates at too high a level.
Among developed countries, US GDP is forecast to grow by 1.6% this year (+0.8 percentage points), Eurozone by 0.7% (-0.6 percentage points) and Japan by 0.9% (+0.2 percentage points). For developing countries, the World Bank forecasts China's GDP to grow by 4.5% this year (+0.1 percentage points), India by 6.4% (unchanged), Indonesia by 4.9% (unchanged) and Thailand by 3.2% (-0.4 percentage points).
The Eurozone recorded several important economic indicators. First, industrial output in the region fell 0.3% month-on-month in November 2023, following a 0.7% decline in the previous month and matching forecasts. Compared to the same period in 2022, Eurozone industrial output fell 6.8%.
Next, exports in the Eurozone reached 252.4 billion EUR in November 2023, down 4.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, imports in November 2023 reached 232.2 billion EUR, down 16.7% year-on-year. Accordingly, the trade balance of this region was in surplus of 14.8 billion EUR in November, higher than the surplus of 11.1 billion in October and at the same time higher than the forecast of 11.2 billion.
The UK house price index rose 1.3% month-on-month in January after consecutive falls of 1.7% in November 2023 and 1.9% in December 2023, according to a survey by Rightmove. The main reason is that people's demand for buying houses has increased again, although mortgage interest rates have not shown any signs of decreasing.
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