| Coffee price forecast for July 29, 2024: Will coffee prices increase sharply when there is a shortage of beans? Coffee price forecast for July 30, 2024: Will a series of price increases begin? |
Coffee prices are forecast to decline slightly on July 31, 2024, in the domestic market. Favorable weather in Vietnam and Brazil has eased concerns about the next crop's coffee output. However, in the long term, climate change is forecast to cause a sharp decline in coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop.
As of July 23, 2024, Brazil’s coffee harvest was 81% complete, up from 74% at the same time last year and ahead of the five-year average of 77%. Mexico and Central America’s export seasons are coming to an end, with just two months left in the 2023/24 crop year. Some experts believe that coffee supplies from these countries are starting to tighten, earlier in the twelve-month export cycle than last year.
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| Coffee price forecast for July 31, 2024: Downward adjustment, does the market need to accumulate for a new uptrend? |
Notably, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has recently continued to reduce its forecast for global coffee production in the 2023/2024 crop year. The USDA's estimate for September 30 is 169.2 million bags (60kg), down 2.2 million bags from the previous forecast.
Exports for the same period are also forecast to be only 119.5 million bags, down 0.4 million bags. Of which, Vietnam and Indonesia will decrease by 2.6 million bags, Central America will decrease by 2.7 million bags but Brazil will increase by 2 million bags. Ending stock is at about 23.9 million bags.
Citi Group has also revised down its forecasts for this year’s output in both Vietnam and Brazil. The global market now sees a surplus of 100,000 60kg bags in 2023/24. It expects Arabica prices to average $2.45/lb in Q3, 10 US cents higher than its previous forecast.
In the domestic market, domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on July 30, 2024 as follows: According to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices increased slightly by 100 VND compared to yesterday, ranging from 123,500 to 124,100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 123,900 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 124,100 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 123,800 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 123,700 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province, coffee is purchased at 123,800 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 124,100 VND/kg.
The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 123,500 VND/kg.
Coffee prices today, July 30, in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 123,900 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 123,800 VND/kg.
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| London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
Updated world coffee prices at 20:45 on July 30, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 4,293 USD/ton, up 26 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for November 2024 was 4,136 USD/ton, up 14 USD; the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,986 USD/ton, up 13 USD and the delivery term for March 2025 was 3,859 USD/ton, up 13 USD.
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| New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:45 on July 30, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 226.95 - 231.10 cents/lb.
Specifically, the September 2024 delivery period is 230.10 cents/lb; up 0.30 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The December 2024 delivery period is 230.00 cents/lb, up 0.28 cents/lb; the March 2025 delivery period is 229.00 cents/lb, up 0.37 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 226.95 cents/lb, up 0.33 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com) |
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 20:45 on July 30, 2024 decreased slightly. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 290.00 USD/ton, up 0.61%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 284.20 USD/ton (up 0.96%); the delivery period for March 2025 is 278.70 USD/ton (up 0.16%) and the delivery period for May 2025 is 275.05 USD/ton, up 0.27%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.
For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil floor, it will be open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.
Coffee prices were mixed at the start of the week. Arabica rose slightly after a new forecast was released that Brazil's current crop was lower than initially estimated. Robusta continued to decline. The market is awaiting the US Federal Reserve's meeting today and tomorrow.
Many experts and investors predict that officials at the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the meeting at the end of July. But will make promises about a rate cut at the end of September 2024. Thus, the Fed's move will positively affect commodity markets, including coffee.
* Information for reference only
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