The Ministry of Transport has just reported to the Government on the reception and explanation of the opinions of the National Assembly Standing Committee and the preliminary review opinions of the Economic Committee on the North-South high-speed railway project.
3 railway options through Nam Dinh
In response to the proposal to reconsider the high-speed railway route through Nam Dinh City because it cannot be "as straight as possible", the Ministry of Transport said that the route has been studied and meets principles such as being consistent with industry, national and local planning; requiring distance between stations, being suitable for terrain conditions, limiting passage through areas sensitive to the natural environment, minimizing impacts on existing works, etc.
During the research process, the consulting unit proposed three options for analysis, comparison and selection. In which, option 1 - the route approaches the center of Nam Dinh city, the station location is about 5 km from the city center. Option 2, the route goes far from the center of Nam Dinh city, the station location is about 12 km from the city center. Option 3 - straighten the route to directly connect Ha Nam - Ninh Binh, not passing through Nam Dinh. In the pre-feasibility study report, the Ministry of Transport proposed option 2.
According to the Ministry of Transport, as the southern center of the Northern coastal region, Nam Dinh City will have a population of about 600,000 by 2040, a traffic hub with large transportation needs, an attractive area for neighboring localities in the Red River Delta such as Thai Binh, Hung Yen..., where there are about 4 million people. It is forecasted that by 2050, the demand for travel to and from Nam Dinh station will be nearly 3 million passengers per year.
The estimated investment and operating costs for the 30-year section through Nam Dinh are about 1.66 billion USD, with benefits of about 2.06 billion USD. Thus, the exploitation of the high-speed railway through Nam Dinh has benefits of about 400 million USD in 30 years compared to the railway not passing through this area.
"World experience shows that there are many cases where high-speed railway lines go around major centers to attract passengers, instead of going straight like in Japan, South Korea, and Germany," said the Ministry of Transport.
High-speed rail fares are lower than air fares
The Ministry of Transport’s explanatory report stated that high-speed rail fares are determined based on two principles: people can afford them and ensure attractiveness and market share structure. The expected fare is about 60-70% of the average airfare of the two airlines with the largest market share, Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet Air.
Ticket prices are divided into three categories, Hanoi - Ho Chi Minh City route is expected to cost 7.34 million VND for first class tickets, 3.05 million VND for second class tickets, and 1.83 million VND for third class tickets. Compared to ticket prices of other forms of transport such as Thong Nhat railway, from 0.9 million VND (seat) to 1.5 million VND (sleeper); bus tickets are 1.1 million VND.
Comparing ticket prices with some countries in the region and the world shows that high-speed rail ticket prices are not much different from those of countries with similar conditions to Vietnam or with long-distance railways. "North-South high-speed rail ticket prices are basically reasonable, lower than air fares, higher than road fares with high service quality, time savings, and safety," the Ministry of Transport assessed.
Regarding the impact on investment in developing airports in the future, the Ministry of Transport said that take-off and landing costs account for a large proportion of transportation costs, so with flight distances under 500 km, aviation is not efficient. According to Forbes , in 2022, France banned short-haul domestic flights under 500 km, and Spain is also proposing a ban on short-haul flights if it is possible to travel by train in less than 2.5 hours.
Therefore, when high-speed railways are put into operation, they will overcome the current shortcomings in passenger transport. Airports mainly serve long-haul and international flights, and railway development will not affect the planning of airport development. High-speed railways will then share and support other modes of development, contributing to restructuring the transport market share on the North-South corridor.
High-speed passenger trains running together with freight trains
In response to the opinion that there is currently no railway line in the world designed with a speed of 350 km/h to operate with freight trains, so it is necessary to assess the feasibility and risk level of the plan, the Ministry of Transport has provided some evidence. The Barcelona - Perpignan line is 175 km long, put into operation in 2013, the passenger train design speed is 350 km/h, operating at 310 km/h, the freight train design speed is 160 km/h.
China operates freight trains on high-speed railways to transport light, high-value goods and e-commerce goods, operating interspersed with passenger trains. Passenger trains operate at speeds of 320 km/h and freight trains at 120 km/h.
Calculate the financial risk of the project
Regarding the proposal to review, calculate more carefully, analyze possible risks during project implementation, and forecast transportation demand, the Ministry of Transport said that the research and consulting process has referred to macroeconomic indicators (economic growth rate, population, per capita income, etc.) according to the Socio-Economic Development Strategy 2021-2030. The pre-feasibility study report has calculated scenarios of increased costs and decreased revenue at 5% and 10% for consideration.
Similar to the model of other countries, the railway project brings general efficiency to the economy, however, the revenue calculated to pay back the project is mainly from revenue from transportation, commercial exploitation (advertising, business at the station) to balance the cost of operating and maintaining vehicles...
Calculation results show that in the first 4 years of operation, project revenue only covers the cost of operating and maintaining vehicles, the state partially supports the cost of maintaining infrastructure. The number of years to recover capital is about 33, not including the cost of infrastructure investment or capital recovery for vehicles and equipment for operation and exploitation.
Previously, during the process of examining the investment policy of the high-speed railway project, the National Assembly's Economic Committee raised a number of issues and requested the Government to clarify such as: the financial efficiency of the project, the calculation of high-speed railway ticket prices at 60-70% of airfares, the route through Nam Dinh province, scenarios when the economy fluctuates...
The North-South high-speed railway project is expected to be 1,541 km long, starting at Ngoc Hoi station (Hanoi), ending at Thu Thiem station (Ho Chi Minh City), a double-track line, 1,435 mm gauge, electrified, designed speed 350 km/h, load capacity 22.5 tons/axle.
VN (according to VnExpress)Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/duong-sat-toc-do-cao-di-qua-nam-dinh-loi-400-trieu-usd-trong-30-nam-397983.html
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