A strong US economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to make another interest rate hike this year. |
A strong US economy will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year and keep them at multi-year highs into 2024 longer than expected, according to a September 15 Bloomberg survey of economists.
The survey showed that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold interest rates at 5.25% - 5.5% at its September 19-20 meeting and maintain them there until the first rate cut since the last tightening period in May 2024. That would be two months later than economists had forecast in July 2023.
Fed policymakers have forecast another rate hike this year as they update their forecasts for the U.S. economic outlook. However, economists surveyed by Reuters do not expect the Fed to make the final rate hike of its recent rate-hiking cycle.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have signaled plans to pause rate hikes this month as inflation slows and rates approach multi-year highs. But a strong economy will help shape discussions at the September meeting.
FOMC members expect US economic growth this year to be 2%, double the 1% forecast in June 2023 and compared with 0.4% in March 2023. In addition, the FOMC forecasts the unemployment rate to increase by 0.1 percentage point to 3.8%.
The FOMC also forecast inflation to rise to 3.2%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to improve slightly to 3.8%. And economists expect Fed policymakers to forecast reaching their 2% inflation target by 2026.
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