According to Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Senior Director of Hanoi Branch, Head of Research & Development Consulting Department of CBRE, in the long term, Vietnam's real estate market is still in a rapid development trend, with the major driving force being urbanization, large housing demand and continued strong infrastructure development.
Therefore, real estate prices in general will continue to trend upward, despite possible temporary slowdowns due to the impacts of economic cycles as well as legal and capital issues.
For the apartment segment, Ms. An believes that selling prices will continue to increase steadily. In the primary market, the average selling price of apartments opened for sale in the third quarter of 2023 will continue to increase by nearly 7% quarter-on-quarter and 14% year-on-year, reaching VND50.8 million/m2 (excluding VAT and maintenance fees).
Real estate prices are expected to increase again in 2024. (Illustration photo)
For the secondary market, the average selling price maintained its upward momentum from the previous quarter, reaching approximately VND32 million/m2, up 2.7% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year.
“ The gap between supply and demand, the new supply of the high-end segment is increasingly taking up a high proportion while the supply of the affordable segment suitable for people's budget is scarce, has caused apartment prices to remain high and show no signs of cooling down ,” Ms. An commented.
According to Ms. An, the second half of 2023 is a transition period related to project owners, related to mobilizing new capital so that in 2024 we can expect supply to grow again.
The level of deposit interest rates and lending interest rates is stabilizing again, helping investors and real home buyers have better access to capital.
“ In the next 1-2 years, limited supply while high demand will keep prices high ,” Ms. An shared.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Marc Townsend, senior consultant of Arcadia Consulting Vietnam, predicted that house prices will increase again in mid-2024 and this is the best time to buy real estate in the past 6-7 years.
This expert also believes that the market has overcome the difficult period, officially entering a new cycle and this is just the beginning of positive prospects.
Currently, real estate prices in the secondary market have decreased significantly by 20%, 30%, even 40%, secondary housing prices will continue to rebalance.
In particular, he noted that the real estate market moves in cycles and the current market is witnessing an upward cycle. Some investors have adopted new sales policies that are more suitable for people's ability to pay, such as freezing interest rates for 8 years to limit interest rate risks for buyers.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, also believes that real estate will reverse in 2024 when the Government 's policies penetrate the market. Accordingly, investor sentiment has gradually become positive and contributed to a faster recovery in the coming time.
Experts advise investors to put money down now. (Illustration photo)
" Positive developments from the Government's economic, financial and monetary management policies are creating a more positive sentiment for the market, contributing to orienting real estate demand back to real value. The real estate market will reverse in 2024 under the condition that macroeconomic management policies continue to be positive as they are now ," Mr. Quoc Anh predicted.
Dr. Can Van Luc stated that the real estate market has been recovering, of course, compared to the golden period, it has only recovered about 20-30%. From now on, the real estate market will develop according to a better scenario, the big push will start from the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, because interest rates have been decreasing, the penetration of policies at that time will also be better, especially with the level of transparency when 4 laws are passed by the National Assembly in October 2023.
In addition, cases of law and legal violations this year will basically be handled; at that time, the economic and macroeconomic recovery situation of Vietnam and the world will also be clearer.
Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi, Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, also said that the Vietnamese real estate market will still be sluggish by the end of 2023 and can only recover and develop more healthily, transparently and in a more standardized manner from the second or third quarter of 2024 thanks to advances in the legal environment, positive economic growth prospects, synchronous and modern infrastructure development, digital transformation trends and technology application, and the diversity of financial resources...
According to experts, when the market improves, real estate prices will begin an upward cycle and 2024 is expected to be the year the market will develop again. Therefore, this is also a good time for investors to invest in good products with standard legal documents.
Chau Anh
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