Arabica coffee prices drop sharply, Robusta loses $4,800/ton mark

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that the world raw material market had mixed developments in the past trading week. At the end of the week, the dominant buying force pushed the MXV-Index up nearly 0.3% to 2,202 points. Agricultural products attracted attention when they led the increase of the entire market, marking the first week of recovery after three consecutive weeks of weakness. On the contrary, the prices of two coffee products were in the red.

Giá cà phê Arabica giảm mạnh, Robusta mất mốc 4.800 USD/tấn

MXV-Index

Heavy rains affect crops in Argentina

At the close of the last trading week (May 19-25), the positive sentiment continued to be maintained in the agricultural market when all 7 items in the group increased in price. In particular, soybean prices increased by nearly 1% to 389 USD/ton, marking the first week of increase after three consecutive weeks of decline. According to MXV, the price movement last week reflected a steady recovery, as the market reconsidered the supply risk from South America, while technical buying power and expectations for US support policies continued to maintain positive sentiment.

Agricultural product price list

The main driver of the week’s price increase was concerns about the progress and quality of the harvest in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil. Prolonged heavy rains and severe flooding in the northwest of Buenos Aires not only disrupted the harvest but also raised concerns about reduced yields and skyrocketed storage costs due to the high moisture content of the beans. In addition, the Argentine government confirmed that it would not extend the preferential export tax policy for soybeans and processed products from July, raising concerns about supply in the coming period.

In addition, the market was also supported by the recovery of finished goods, especially soybean meal, which is directly affected by Argentine supply. Soybean oil prices fluctuated slightly, but remained supported by expectations of an extension of the 45Z tax credit for biofuels in the US. Although no final decision has been made, the House of Representatives' passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and the upcoming energy policy meeting at the White House have maintained investors' confidence that policy support will continue in the near future.

On the other hand, the weather in the US continues to be favorable, supporting the planting progress to reach 65% of the planned area. Although it did not cause any big surprises and did not create a strong price adjustment momentum, this is still a factor that restrained the price decline last week.

Positive supply outlook puts pressure on coffee prices

According to MXV, red covered most of the prices of key commodities in the industrial raw material group. Of which, Arabica coffee price decreased by 1.27% to 7,958 USD/ton, while Robusta lost 1.54% to 4,790 USD/ton.

Industrial raw material price list

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that Brazil's coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year is expected to reach about 65 million 60kg bags, up 0.46% compared to the previous crop year. Of which, Arabica output decreased by 6.4% to 40.9 million bags while Robusta increased sharply by 14.76% to a record 24.1 million bags. The USDA forecast also said that Brazil's coffee exports in the 2025-2026 crop year will decrease by 6.18% compared to the 2024-2025 crop year, down to 38 million bags, with inventories carried over from the 2024-2025 crop year to the 2025-2026 crop year estimated at a modest 640,000 bags.

Arabica coffee prices fell 1.27% to $7,958/ton, while Robusta lost 1.54% to $4,790/ton.

In addition, the USDA also forecasts that Vietnam's upcoming coffee crop (October 2025 to September 2026), which is expected to begin harvesting later this year, will increase by 6.90% compared to the previous crop, reaching 31 million bags, including 30 million bags of Robusta and 1 million bags of Arabica. In addition, the inventory carried over from the current crop to the next crop is estimated at about 939,000 bags - a modest figure in the world's largest Robusta producing country. For the new crop (2025-2026), Vietnam is forecast to export 27 million bags of green coffee, up 4.65% (equivalent to 1.20 million bags) compared to the 2024-2025 crop.

Favorable weather conditions have also boosted the harvest in Brazil, with Safras & Mercado's weekly monitoring report showing that as of May 21, 13% of the 2025-2026 crop had been harvested, up 6 percentage points from the previous week and not much different from the same period last year.

Of this, 20% of Robusta has been harvested, while Arabica, which has been slower than usual, is now at 9%. According to Safras consultant Gil Barabach, the harvest has accelerated, with most producers already starting to harvest. Preliminary results indicate a solid forecast for a bumper crop of conilon or robusta, especially in the state of Espírito Santo.

Regarding exports, according to MXV calculations, in the 17 working days since the beginning of May, Brazil's average daily Arabica and Robusta coffee exports were 116,535 60kg bags, 34% lower than the average of 176,601 60kg bags in the same period last year. In addition, in Vietnam, according to the Import-Export Department, our country's coffee exports from the beginning of the year to May 15 reached 736,583 tons, down 5.5% over the same period last year.

Meanwhile, coffee consumption is showing less positive signs. Import data from the US and EU markets, which account for nearly 50% of the world's coffee consumption, showed an 8% decline compared to the first quarter of 2024 if total imports are calculated. Of which, US coffee imports (green beans, roasted, decaffeinated and by-products) in the first quarter increased by 7.7%, while EU imports decreased by 12%.

The World Weather Service forecasts warm, dry weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions through early next week, helping the harvest. Some Robusta-growing areas may see light rain next week, but widespread heavy rains are not expected.

Prices of some other goods