High demand in both the global and domestic markets at the beginning of 2025 has led to a continuous increase in coffee prices, while pepper prices have reached their highest level in nine years.
In the early days of 2025, the agricultural market in the Central Highlands provinces recorded positive fluctuations, especially with a sharp increase in coffee and pepper prices. On January 8th, domestic coffee prices increased by 300-500 VND per kg, reaching 120,300-121,000 VND. Dak Nong and Dak Lak recorded the highest coffee prices at 121,000 VND per kg.
Not only coffee, but pepper prices have also risen, reaching 150,500 VND per kilogram - the highest level in 9 years, an 85% increase compared to the same period last year.
On the international market, prices of these agricultural products also increased across the board. On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices rose by 0.57% to 0.67%, with the nearest delivery contract in March 2025 reaching $7,070 per ton, an increase of $40. Robusta prices surpassed the $5,000 per ton mark.
Pepper prices on the international market have exceeded $6,800 per ton for black pepper and nearly $9,000 per ton for white pepper.
Representatives of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association explained that the sharp price increase was due to a serious shortage in supply. Climate change and drought have reduced production, while crop diversification has also contributed to the price surge.
In addition, global conflicts have put pressure on supply chains, especially as farmers hold back their crops waiting for better prices after the harvest.
Regarding pepper, supply from India has declined sharply due to climate change. Global pepper production in 2024 is projected to reach 533,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous year. In Vietnam, production is expected to decrease by 20,000 tons, to 170,000 tons. However, it is forecast that in 2025, Vietnam's pepper production could recover to 200,000 tons, while India's is expected to decrease by 25-30% due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Vietnam continues to be the world's largest supplier of robusta coffee. Despite a 15% drop in coffee production in 2024 due to drought, the average price increased by 57%, reaching a record high of $4,037 per ton. Coffee exports last year reached $5.5 billion, a 32% increase compared to the previous year.
Similarly, pepper exports in 2024 reached nearly $1.4 billion, an increase of 45.4% despite a 5.1% decrease in export volume. This upward trend is projected to continue, with domestic coffee prices likely to rise slightly due to the influence of the international market.
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