Global coffee exports have recorded a record increase in the 2023-2024 crop year. September exports increased by 24.9% compared to the same period last year, reaching a total of more than 10.7 million bags. At the end of the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 - September 2024), total global coffee exports increased by 11.7% compared to the previous crop year, reaching a record 137.3 million bags, according to the ICO.
Coffee price today 11/14/2024
World coffee prices increased sharply for three consecutive sessions despite the high USD, increasing by 95 USD/ton for robusta coffee and 8.1 cents/ton for arabica.
Domestic coffee prices have continuously increased to new highs, fluctuating between 110,100 - 110,400 VND/kg. The 2024 coffee harvest is underway, however, due to the heavy impact of the drought, fruit production is uneven, leading to a decrease in output. In return, coffee is being purchased at high prices, which also compensates for the low output.
Coffee prices extended their rally this week, with arabica hitting a seven-week high and robusta hitting a three-week high. Speculators on the exchange are betting on the possibility of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, adding to the price of coffee.
Slow exports from Vietnam have tightened the global coffee market, supporting prices, while recent weather conditions in both Brazil and Vietnam have raised concerns about the future of the upcoming harvests in both countries. Coffee prices, especially Arabica, continue to be supported by hot and dry conditions in Brazil’s main growing regions, while Brazilian growers have also limited sales in anticipation of higher prices.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s low export data in recent months and the rising US dollar have caused the domestic and global coffee markets to increase continuously. In addition, information about consecutive storms and rains targeting key coffee harvesting areas in Vietnam poses a threat of supply disruption, according to the Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center (VITIC), Ministry of Industry and Trade .
Another development expected to influence market prices in the coming period is the European Parliament’s vote on a possible delay to the implementation of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). A decision is expected later today (14 November). In addition to coffee, other sectors such as cocoa, livestock, timber, oil palm, soybeans and rubber will be closely monitoring this development.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), coffee prices have been under downward pressure during this period after the European Commission (EC) announced on October 2 that it had proposed a one-year delay in the implementation of the EUDR. Then on October 16, the European Council representing EU member states unanimously approved the proposal. If approved by the European Parliament, the obligations arising from this regulation will be binding from December 30, 2025, for large operators and traders, and June 30, 2026, for small and micro enterprises.
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| Domestic coffee prices on November 13 increased by 300 - 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on November 13, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase, the delivery term for January 2025 increased by 95 USD, trading at 4,632 USD/ton. The delivery term for March 2025 increased by 91 USD, trading at 4,552 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term up 8.1 cents, trading at 271.65 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased 8.1 cents, trading at 271.20 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices on November 13 increased by 300 - 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
According to ICO data, in the 2023-2024 coffee year, global green coffee exports will reach more than 123.7 million bags, up 11.8% (13 million bags) from the previous year's 110.7 million bags. This is the largest annual increase ever, surpassing the previous high of 9.3 million bags in the 1995-1996 crop year.
The growth in global green coffee exports in 2023/24 is largely due to the low base of the previous two consecutive years of decline (-1.1% and -5.6%), with exports falling from 118.7 million bags in 2020/21 to 110.7 million bags in 2022/23.
Therefore, according to the ICO, a double-digit increase in the 2023-2024 coffee crop year represents a recovery rather than an extension of the long-term trend.
According to the ICO, global green coffee exports increased by an average of 2.36 million bags per year from coffee year 2010-11 to 2020-21, while increasing by only 1.7 million bags per year from coffee year 2020-21 to 2023-24. Actual exports are still below the potential of 125.7 million bags.
For now, the growth in Brazilian exports has offset a large drop in exports from Vietnam, which is expected to ship 23.2 million bags in 2023-24 compared to 26.1 million bags in 2022-23. Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of robusta, is struggling with domestic supplies as output falls below potential due to adverse weather conditions.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-14112024-gia-ca-phe-keo-dai-dot-tang-gia-trong-nuoc-muc-cao-moi-da-tro-lai-xuat-khau-toan-cau-tang-nhung-la-khong-tang-293666.html
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