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Robusta coffee prices have stopped increasing sharply. Can Vietnamese goods be confident about prices throughout the season?

Báo Quốc TếBáo Quốc Tế15/11/2024

According to records, the price of fresh coffee (picked and sold at the garden) is at 21,000-23,000 VND/kg and coffee beans are at 105,000-110,000 VND/kg depending on the place and type. 2024 is a special year for the coffee industry because for the first time, the price of Vietnamese robusta coffee exports has increased to a record high, even the highest in the world - higher than the price of arabica coffee, according to Vicofa.


Coffee price today 11/16/2024

World coffee prices had a correction session at the end of the week. Previously, coffee increased sharply despite the soaring USD. However, robusta coffee prices were affected after the EU officially decided to postpone the implementation of the EUDR regulation by 1 year.

Domestic coffee prices have continuously recorded new prices, currently trading in the range of 113,500 - 114,000 VND/kg. At this time, many farmers in the Southeast, Central Highlands... have entered the coffee harvest season with low output but prices are stable at a high level. According to the press, due to concerns about labor shortages, theft, and falling prices, many farmers in Dak Nong have harvested coffee at the same time when the rate of ripe fruit is not high, affecting quality.

To harvest, process and preserve coffee properly, reduce losses and contribute to improving product quality, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of Dak Nong has instructed localities and people to be proactive in terms of time and human resources. Specifically, coffee is only harvested when the rate of ripe fruit reaches 80 - 90%. At the same time, farmers are not allowed to pick the whole bunch of coffee fruit mixed with leaves and small branches. The purpose is to ensure the quality of coffee branches stored for the next crop.

Coffee futures on both exchanges rose for a fourth straight day, with arabica hitting a 13-year high and robusta hitting a one-month high, supported by concerns about weather affecting supplies in Brazil and the ongoing harvest in Vietnam.

In Brazil, producers are holding back coffee in hopes of higher prices. These optimistic expectations are fueled by uncertain prospects for the 2024-25 crop, which has been significantly affected by months of drought. In addition, forecasts for continued hot and dry weather in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, are also helping to push up arabica prices.

In Vietnam, recent bad weather has slowed down harvesting activities, even though this is the peak of the season.

The EU has made a formal decision on the implementation date of the EUDR regulation, postponing it by one year. However, the market continues to rise. The reason is that speculation has planted prices on coffee and Brazilian farmers have tightened supply as the local currency weakens against the USD.

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (November 15), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange slightly adjusted in opposite directions, the delivery period for January 2025 decreased by 4 USD, trading at 4,773 USD/ton. The delivery period for March 2025 increased by 4 USD, trading at 4,669 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase sharply, with the December 2024 delivery period increasing by 2.85 cents, trading at 281.80 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period increased by 3.9 cents, trading at 283.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on November 15 increased by VND2,700 - 2,800/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price

Medium

USD/VND exchange rate

25,160

0

DAK LAK

113,800

+ 2,800

LAM DONG

113,500

+ 2,700

GIA LAI

113,700

+ 2,700

DAK NONG

114,000

+ 2,800

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Vietnamese Robusta coffee is very popular with customers because it tastes better than other countries, not to mention that at this time we are almost 'all alone in the market' because other countries have not harvested yet. Therefore, there is a basis to believe in good prices.

The above price is reported by many businesses to have increased slightly compared to a few days ago, nearly double the same period last year, and nearly triple the low level of previous years (fluctuating around 35,000 VND/kg of green coffee).

Robusta currently accounts for about 95% of Vietnam's coffee area and is very popular with many customers around the world because it tastes much better than similar products from countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia...

In addition, according to the Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam's coffee harvest season mainly falls from early November to late December, which is the time when most countries do not have a harvest, or have very little harvest. Our country is almost "alone in the market" during the harvest season and is always the first choice of customers around the world thanks to its delicious and suitable flavor. Therefore, although Vietnam's main-season output will increase sharply compared to this time and prices may fluctuate, we still have certain advantages to expect better prices than in previous years.

Many experts believe that Brazil - the world's largest coffee producer - has a crop season from May to September, but the inventory at this point is not large due to this year's reduced output. Therefore, if the coffee supply from Vietnam is moderate and the price is good, it will likely be maintained, at least in the short term.



Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-16112024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-da-ngung-tang-manh-hang-viet-co-the-tu-tin-ve-gia-trong-ca-mua-293912.html

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