The 2023-2024 coffee crop has ended, with Vietnam exporting 1.46 million tons, down 12.1% but the value reaching 5.43 billion USD, up 33.1% compared to the previous crop. This is a record high in the export history of the Vietnamese coffee industry, according to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa).
Coffee price today 10/21/2024
World coffee prices had the third consecutive week of sharp decline for Robusta, while Arabica coffee prices recovered, regaining what they lost last week. At the end of the week, Robusta coffee futures for November delivery fell by 124 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for December delivery increased by 5.25 cents/lb. Last week, Robusta coffee futures for November delivery fell by 241 USD/ton. Arabica coffee futures for December delivery fell by 5.3 cents/lb.
Domestic coffee prices traded on October 20 at VND111,100 – 111,700/kg, down another VND1,900 – 2,100/kg this week, after losing an average of VND2,500 – 3,000/kg last week. This is the third consecutive week of decline.
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (October 18), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange reversed, the November 2024 delivery period increased by 17 USD, trading at 4,702 USD/ton. The January 2025 delivery period increased by 17 USD, trading at 4,615 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the December 2024 delivery term up 2.15 cents, trading at 257.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased 2.15 cents, trading at 256.00 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
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| Domestic coffee prices closed last week's trading session (October 19) up 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Coffeeam) |
October is the time when the world’s largest robusta coffee producer – Vietnam – begins harvesting its new coffee crop, which is calculated from October 2024 to September 2025. Farmers will be hoping for rain to stop around this time to facilitate harvesting, however, there are many weather reports from Vietnam saying that continuous rain will come to the Central Highlands this weekend and into the new week.
Fundamentals are also helping to keep coffee prices in check, with news that limited rains are forecast for Brazil next week, a crucial time as coffee plants need water to flower in the main coffee-growing state of Minas Gerais.
In the short term, the market is unlikely to return to the historical level of September, but due to high demand for coffee and low supply, prices are unlikely to fall below $4,500/ton.
Domestic coffee prices at the close of trading last week (October 19) increased by VND300/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
According to some businesses, although coffee prices are high, this industry also faces many challenges, especially strong weather changes, many other crops competing fiercely for economic benefits with coffee, and preparing a roadmap to implement EU anti-deforestation regulations...
Vietnam accounts for about 30% of the global supply of robusta, which is used primarily for instant drinks and espresso blends. But drought, followed by weeks of heavy rain, has severely affected many growing regions just ahead of the harvest that is set to begin in October, according to Bloomberg.
The growing popularity of instant and take-away coffee, combined with limited supplies due to weather, has caused robusta prices to double over the past year. They are now priced close to premium arabica, which has also risen sharply.
Meanwhile, harsh weather conditions and shrinking coffee-growing areas will reduce the crop by 10% to 15% this season. Volcafe Ltd., a major coffee trader, forecasts a severe global robusta deficit in 2024-25, which would be the fourth consecutive year of such a deficit.
Coffee acreage in Vietnam has been declining as farmers have switched to alternative crops such as durian and avocado in recent years. According to a USDA report, declining groundwater and shade rates also pose long-term challenges as many Vietnamese farmers rely on wells for irrigation and forest cover to reduce evaporation.
Although coffee prices have cooled down, domestic coffee prices are still 80% higher than the same period last year. At the same time, many forecasts show that prices will remain high in the 2024-2025 crop year due to reduced production.
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