World oil prices

The prospect of interest rate hikes by major banks around the world continues to be a factor pushing oil prices down this week because rising interest rates could slow global economic growth.

Are gasoline prices repeating last week's scenario? Illustration: Foxbusiness

In the first trading session of the week, oil prices fell by approximately 50 cents, reversing the strong increase in the last two trading sessions of the previous week. Will this week's price scenario repeat last week when oil prices plunged at the beginning of the week, accelerated in the last trading sessions and marked a week of price increases? According to economic experts, the possibility of oil prices increasing is still high in the context of weak supply and low demand.

Last week, oil prices experienced their first weekly gain after two weeks of “freezing” with Brent crude rising 2.4% and WTI crude rising 2.3%.

Notably, in the trading sessions, oil prices increased and decreased quite strongly, affected by many factors, including Goldman Sachs's reduction of oil price forecast, the signal that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates by half a percentage point by the end of the year, the unexpected increase in US oil reserves, hopes of increased demand in China, supply cuts from OPEC+, and Iran's oil exports and production increasing despite US sanctions.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude oil prices in December to fall to $86/barrel and WTI crude oil prices to fall to $81/barrel, a sharp decrease compared to previous forecasts.

Last week, although the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged, the Fed chairman's statement later signaled the possibility that the Fed could increase borrowing costs by another 50 basis points later this year.

The Fed's decision sent the dollar sharply lower, supporting higher oil prices.

While the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5% - the highest level in 22 years. This is the ECB's eighth rate hike since July 2022 to respond to persistently high inflation.

Gasoline prices fell at the beginning of the first trading session of the week. Illustration photo: Oilprice

US crude oil inventories rose by about 8 million barrels, a huge increase compared to analysts' forecast for a decrease of 500,000 barrels.

Notably, data from China showed that the world’s top oil consumer’s refinery output rose 15.4% in May from a year earlier. China’s oil demand is expected to continue growing at a steady pace in the second half of the year, according to the CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp.

Domestic gasoline prices

Domestic retail prices of gasoline on June 19 are as follows:

E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than 20,878 VND/liter.

RON 95 gasoline is not more than 22,015 VND/liter.

Diesel oil not more than 18,028 VND/liter.

Kerosene not more than 17,823 VND/liter.

Fuel oil not exceeding 14,719 VND/kg.

World oil prices increased last week, so experts, key enterprises, and domestic retailers predict that in the price adjustment session on June 21 of the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade, domestic oil prices will be adjusted up by about 100-200 VND/liter (kg), possibly higher. The adjustment level depends on the allocation of the Oil Price Stabilization Fund and other adjusted fees, if any, and the development of world oil prices today (June 19) and tomorrow (June 20).

Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have undergone 17 adjustments, of which 9 have increased, 6 have decreased, and 2 have remained unchanged.

In the most recent adjustment (June 12), gasoline prices remained unchanged and oil prices increased slightly.

MAI HUONG