Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan: Must ensure enough salary for a family of 4

Stating that economic growth must be linked to human regeneration, Professor Nhan said that the Government must ensure that workers' wages are enough to support a family of four.

The above viewpoint was mentioned by Professor Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan during a roundtable discussion at the National Scientific Conference with the theme " August Revolution and National Day September 2: Contemporary values and everlasting vitality ", took place on the afternoon of August 14.

Party and State leaders and delegates at the workshop

At the conference, Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan raised the issue of possible changes to the international community and Vietnam in the next 80 years.

" Before 2008, Japan's miraculous economic development was always a model for me of dynamism, creativity and efficiency. In 2008, as Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the National Steering Committee on Population and Family Planning, I learned more about Japan's development and realized that the country's development model was facing the problem of unsustainable growth, " said Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan.

He cited data that, after 33 years of remarkable economic growth, Japan's GDP per capita in 1995 reached 44,200 USD, equal to 154% of the US, making it the second largest economy in the world .

But in the next 30 years, Japan fell into a period of economic stagnation, with GDP per capita in 2024 being 32,456 USD, only 73.47% of 1995 and equivalent to 1992 ($31,993).

Besides, in 2006, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research at Tohoku University predicted that Japan's population will decrease to 50 million by 2100, 10 million by 2200...

" In 2023, Prime Minister Kishida told the House of Representatives: Japan's biggest crisis today is the population crisis. It must be solved now or never, " said Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan.

Former Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan also cited data from South Korea, after 43 years of remarkable growth, GDP per capita in 2018 reached 33,400 USD. In the period 2019-2024, South Korea's GDP per capita will average 33,381 USD (equal to 2018).

In 2014, the National Assembly Research Service of South Korea predicted that the country's population would peak at around 52 million in 2020, then decline to 20 million in 2100, 3 million in 2200, 1 million in 2300, and by 2750 there would be no Koreans left.

" From a global perspective, the total fertility rate decreased from 3.61% in 1980 to 2.23% in 2021 and is forecast to decrease to 2.1% (replacement fertility) in 2030, marking a very important moment for humanity. After 2030, humanity will enter a period of unsustainable human development. The total fertility rate in 2050 will be 1.83%, and in 2100 it will be 1.59% ," Professor Nhan predicted.

From this reality, Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan concluded: All high-income countries are developing but not sustainably in terms of human development. In the 20th century, in general, humanity developed sustainably in terms of human development, except for high-income countries. The 21st century is the transition of humanity from sustainable human development to unsustainable human development (after 2030).

According to him, if countries do not consider sustainable human development as the number one premise, sooner or later it will lead to human degradation, economic decline and national extinction.

" To have a sustainable family, every family must have at least 2 children. But if the income of a couple is not enough to raise 2 children, that is, the income is not enough to cover 4 people, then they will not have 2 children. The most practical solution is to switch from paying the minimum wage to a living wage for a family of 4 people ," said Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan emphasized that there is no trade-off between sustainable human beings and economic growth, but only two choices: High economic growth for several decades, then decline, or in each step of high economic growth, human regeneration must be ensured.

He analyzed that if we only focus on economic growth, we can be successful for about 25-40 years (China has been successful for 26 years, Japan has been successful for 33 years and South Korea has been successful for 43 years), but then the economy will decline because there is not enough labor.

To ensure the goal of high economic growth along with human regeneration, Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan said that the Government responsible for developing the country must agree throughout society that sustainable development is a mandatory requirement.

" In a market economy, there is always a risk of conflict of interests between the State, businesses and people; the role of the State is to create harmony of interests. Harmony here means allowing businesses to pursue the goal of maximum profit but with the condition that they must give workers a salary sufficient to support a family with 2 children. This is a responsibility that the State and businesses must share ," emphasized Professor, Dr. Nguyen Thien Nhan.

Mr. Nhan proposed that the Government switch from regulations minimum wage to regulate a living wage for a family of four according to the roadmap and increase the actual family deduction when calculating personal income tax, so that workers have enough income to support 2 children in the family without needing too much of a salary increase.

However, statistics from some countries show that the living wage for a family of four is twice the minimum wage, so according to him, businesses will tend to "resist" this regulation.

" But if today's businesses do not pay enough wages for a family to raise two children, then 30 years from now, 50 years from now, the businesses themselves will have no workers, " added former Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Thien Nhan.

Source: https://baolangson.vn/gs-nguyen-thien-nhan-phai-bao-dam-tien-luong-du-song-cho-gia-dinh-4-nguoi-5056122.html