IMF warns global economic situation could worsen.

VTV.vn - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the global economy could worsen if the Middle East conflict continues, driving up oil prices and inflationary pressure.

The IMF stated that if the conflict continues until 2027 and oil prices reach around $125 per barrel, global inflation risks escalating sharply. The IMF noted that oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel triggers an "adverse" scenario, with global growth in 2026 potentially falling to 2.5% and inflation rising to 5.4%.

In the baseline scenario, growth is projected at 3.1% and inflation at 4.4%. However, a more severe scenario could see growth fall to just 2% and inflation to 5.8% if the conflict continues.

IMF leaders emphasized that energy markets are playing a crucial role in shaping the global macroeconomic outlook. If oil prices approach $125 per barrel, production and transportation costs will rise sharply, which in turn will spread to consumer prices, directly impacting people's real incomes and the resilience of businesses.

According to the IMF's assessment, the biggest risk lies in the asynchronous response of economies to fluctuations in energy prices. When supply tightens, demand will be forced to adjust accordingly; otherwise, inflationary pressures will intensify, forcing central banks to maintain tight monetary policies for longer than expected.

The IMF's warning comes amid a global economy already under pressure from slowing growth, high public debt, and increasingly complex geopolitical uncertainties. If a worst-case scenario unfolds, not only developing economies but also developed nations will face significant challenges in stabilizing growth, controlling inflation, and ensuring social welfare.

Source: https://vtv.vn/imf-canh-bao-kinh-te-toan-cau-co-the-xau-di-100260506051618051.htm